Modeling the Social Consequences of Industrial Robotization

Abstract

The article examines the issues of predicting the negative consequences of automation of business processes for the population. The author presents the controversial context of the results of robotization, on the one hand, manifested in the aggregate economic and technological growth, on the other hand, in the reduction of employment. As a research methodology, the authors used the author’s approach based on modeling socioeconomic processes in Russia by extrapolating the average results of robotization across the world to domestic experience. To calculate the indicators, official statistics from Rosstat and the International Federation of Robotics were used. The analysis results were determined pursuant to the pessimistic scenario and have specific quantitative estimates. They show a significant increase in the gender-sensitive unemployment rate. The paper notes as negative the consequences of the further social stratification of the population by income levels, and substantiates its reasons. In the final part of the research, a conclusion is made about the need for government intervention in regulating the consequences of robotization, and the main vectors of such regulation are set. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of the author’s methodology for modeling the social consequences of the industrial production robotization, as well as assessing such consequences in relation to the Russian Federation.