Crisis Management or Crisis Preparedness? The Importance of Economic Diversification in Building Resilience to Economic Crises

Zizi Goschin
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Abstract

. Economic crises periodically disrupt the economic activity, severely putting to test the resilience capacity, and the ability to overcome hardships by adapting and changing. This happens everywhere, from micro (firm) level to macro (country/region) level alike. A large and continuously growing literature was dedicated to understanding the reasons behind the crises, their mechanism, effects and, most of all, the solutions. What if the answer lies not in solving the crisis after it started but in preventing, or at least preparing in advance for economic shocks by building resilience during good times, so that the impact of economic crises can be attenuated? Starting from these considerations, the paper focuses on regional economic specialization and its opposite – economic diversification, two business strategies already acknowledged in the literature as relevant factors for the capacity to mitigate economic crises. We tested the hypothesis of resilience-inducing economic diversification in the Romanian economy, using NUTS3 level data and found that more diversified regional economies were better at coping with the hardships triggered by the recent recession.
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危机管理还是危机准备?经济多样化在增强经济危机抵御能力中的重要性
. 经济危机周期性地扰乱经济活动,严重考验了恢复能力,以及通过适应和改变克服困难的能力。从微观(公司)层面到宏观(国家/地区)层面,这种情况无处不在。大量且不断增长的文献致力于理解危机背后的原因、机制、影响,最重要的是,解决方案。如果答案不在于危机开始后解决,而在于预防,或者至少是提前为经济冲击做好准备,在经济繁荣时期建立韧性,从而减轻经济危机的影响,那会怎么样?从这些考虑出发,本文将重点放在区域经济专业化及其对立面-经济多样化上,这两种商业战略已经在文献中被认为是缓解经济危机能力的相关因素。我们使用NUTS3水平数据检验了罗马尼亚经济中弹性诱导经济多样化的假设,发现越多元化的区域经济体越能更好地应对最近经济衰退引发的困难。
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