Inference and Inductive Risk

Abstract

Several types of inferences are common in the diagnosis and prognosis of brain injuries. These inferences, although necessary, introduce epistemic uncertainty. This chapter details the various inferences and considers the concept of inductive risk, introduced by Richard Rudner in the 1950s, and the problem of inductive risk: given uncertainty, what is the appropriate epistemic standard of evidence for accepting a scientific (or medical) hypothesis? Two principles of inductive risk are proposed to tackle the problem of inductive risk present in disorders of consciousness (and other medical contexts): the First Principle calls on us to index epistemic risk-taking to the level of ethical risk, thus constraining acceptable epistemic risk-taking. The Second Principle tells us to index ethical risk-taking to the level of epistemic risk, thus constraining ethical risk-taking to a level commensurate with epistemic uncertainty.