From the Ashes? Modelling Conflict Dynamics Using Richardson Equations

Klaus B. Beckmann, G. Susan, Lechner Anja, Lennart Reimer
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Abstract

We extend, and apply, one of the classic dynamic models in conflict economics due to Richardson (1919) and Boulding (1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peace-keeping, and incrementalist as well as stochastic versions of the model are reviewed. These extensions allow for a rich variety of patterns of dynamic conflict. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that the Richardson model captures selected phases of the conflict quite well, a fact which can be used to distinguish between them.
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来自灰烬?用Richardson方程建模冲突动力学
由于Richardson(1919)和Boulding(1962),我们扩展并应用了冲突经济学中的经典动态模型之一。放宽了对参数的限制,以便考虑到联盟和维持和平,并审查了模型的渐进版本和随机版本。这些扩展支持丰富多样的动态冲突模式。使用蒙特卡罗技术以及基于GDELT数据的时间序列分析(1998-2000年埃塞俄比亚-厄立特里亚战争),我们还评估了该模型的经验有用性。事实证明,理查森模型很好地捕捉了冲突的特定阶段,这一事实可以用来区分它们。
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