Using a semi-guided Monte Carlo method for faster simulation of forced outages of generating units

Abstract

A semiguided Monte Carlo technique to schedule forced outage periods of generating units is described. The key advantage of this method lies in its ability to create forced-outage schedules that are statistically balanced. When tested against the pure Monte Carlo method, the semiguided Monte Carlo technique provided much faster convergence and greatly reduced the number of Monte Carlo iterations required to produce reliable production cost results. The Electricity Supply Board implemented this technique in its chronological dispatch program. The program can be used for a diverse spectrum of applications, from evaluating different generation expansion plans and estimating fuel requirements to evaluating the cost/benefit of improving various plant parameters, such as forced outage rates.<>