The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century - Scenario Narratives

Abstract

This document serves as the final Scenario Narratives Report for the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, a project of the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) working group and Global Business Network (GBN), a member of the Monitor Group. The purpose of this project, and these scenarios, is to systematically consider the long-term social, technological, economic, environmental, and political impacts on Arctic Marine Navigation of Key Finding #6 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) published by the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee in November 2004. These scenarios are meant to summarize and communicate a set of plausible and different stories of the future in which critical uncertainties play out in ways that challenge planning decisions being made in the present. For this scenarios project on the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation, we convened two workshops to gather the perspectives and ideas of a highly diverse group of stakeholders. The first workshop was held at the GBN office in San Francisco in April 2007, and the second at the offices of Aker Arctic Technology in Helsinki in July 2007. Because this project rests on Key Finding #6, all of the scenarios assume continued global climate change that results in significantly less Arctic ice cover, at least in the summer, throughout the 2030s and 2040s. It is our intention that these scenarios will provide material for deeper discussions about the future and earlier decisions by the countries, peoples, and industries active in the Arctic region.