Forecasting Water Resources Demand Based on Complex System Dynamics: A Case Study of Tianjin City

Abstract

Forecasting water resources demand is being a component of integrated water resources management promotes and balances efficiency, equity and sustainability objectives for management and allocation of water resources. This article introduces the ITHINK software for the forecasting water resources demand studies. System Dynamics is an analytical study information feedback system, the understanding system question and the solution system question discipline. The model is dominated by four stocks, six flows and twenty-seven converters in this article. As for the Tianjin city, the System Dynamics model is developed for forecasting the tendency of the planning years, based on analysis of water resources in Tianjin. The practical verification shows this method forecast relative error is lower than 10%. Thus the predicting outcome shows that System dynamics forecasting result can offer accurate quantitative information to water resources management system. And that proves that System Dynamics method is an available tool for resources plan.