Not the Wars You’re Looking For

J. Hazelton
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Abstract

This chapter examines support for the compellence theory in three cases: the Malayan Emergency, the Greek Civil War, and the Philippines' campaign against the Huk insurgency. In the British campaign in Malaya, 1948–1957, the colonial government defeated a small, isolated Communist insurgency that failed to gain political traction even within the population of impoverished ethnic Chinese rubber plantation workers that it targeted as its often-unwilling base of support. In Greece in 1947–1949, the United States backed the repressive, fragile post-World War II Greek government and built its military capacity sufficiently to defeat the Communist and nationalist insurgents. In the Philippines in 1946–1954, the United States backed the Philippine government as a bulwark against Communist expansion in Asia, pressing for major governance reforms while building Philippine security forces. In all three cases, elite accommodation played a significant role in the counterinsurgent's ability to defeat the insurgency militarily, with the type of elite involved varying by case; uses of force included forcefully controlling civilians; and uses of force broke the insurgency before reforms were implemented, if they were implemented at all, as the compellence theory predicts.
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不是你想要的战争
本章在三个案例中考察了对强迫理论的支持:马来亚紧急状态、希腊内战和菲律宾对虎克叛乱的运动。1948年至1957年,在英国在马来亚的战役中,殖民政府击败了一场小规模的孤立的共产党叛乱,这场叛乱即使在贫困的华人橡胶种植园工人中也未能获得政治支持。1947年至1949年,在希腊,美国支持了二战后压制性的、脆弱的希腊政府,并建立了足以击败共产党和民族主义叛乱分子的军事能力。1946年至1954年,在菲律宾,美国支持菲律宾政府,将其作为抵御共产主义在亚洲扩张的堡垒,在建设菲律宾安全部队的同时,敦促菲律宾进行重大的治理改革。在这三种情况下,精英的调解在反叛乱的能力中发挥了重要作用,在军事上击败叛乱,精英的类型因情况而异;使用武力包括强行控制平民;而且,正如强迫理论所预测的那样,在实施改革之前(如果真的实施改革的话),动用武力镇压了叛乱。
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