An Uncertain Cost-benefit Industrial System Planning Model Considering Atmospheric Environmental Constraints

Abstract

In consideration of dramatic rising energy demand and increasingly ecological fragile environment, exacerbating air pollution and changing complex ecological environment is emerging associated with industrial system. In this study, a novel uncertain cost-benefit industrial system planning model (UCBI) was formulated to support industrial system planning in resource-dependent cities. UCBI model has superiority in uncertainties reflection provided as probability distributions, risk investigation of constraint-violation, and cost-benefit analysis. To prove practicability, UCBI model was then applied to Yulin city, a typical resource-dependent city in China. The obtained results are useful for decision makers adjusting current energy production and industrial energy supply schemes, which can maximize system profitability and minimize pollutant emission, simultaneously. At the same time, the UCBI can be also extended to support industrial system planning in similar resource-dependent cities.