The Causality Analysis between Transportation and Regional Development in City-level China

2019 5th International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS) Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI:10.1109/ICTIS.2019.8883790

Sanwei He, Lei Mei, Wenting Zhang

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Abstract

The causality between transportation and regional development has been subject to heated debates. The existing studies investigating the causality between transportation and regional development tend to utilize panel data but assume homogeneity across individuals. This paper aims to handle the problem of panel heterogeneity embedded in Granger causality between transportation and regional development in urban China. We use a panel made up of 216 city districts in China from 1994 to 2013. The homogeneous (non)causality is firstly tested in the panel data model and then heterogeneous (non)causality is further examined if the first test fails. Homogeneous causality can only be observed in coastal region while heterogeneous non-causality dominates in central, western and northeastern China. The results demonstrate 45% of bidirectional causality, 37% of unidirectional causality running from regional development to transportation, 10% of no causality and 8% of unidirectional causality from transportation to regional development in China.

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中国城市交通与区域发展的因果关系分析

交通与区域发展之间的因果关系一直是争论的焦点。现有的交通运输与区域发展因果关系研究倾向于使用面板数据，但假设个体之间的同质性。本文旨在处理中国城市交通与区域发展之间格兰杰因果关系的面板异质性问题。我们使用了一个由1994年至2013年中国216个城市地区组成的面板。首先在面板数据模型中检验同质(非)因果关系，如果第一次检验失败，则进一步检验异质性(非)因果关系。同质因果关系仅在沿海地区存在，而异质性非因果关系在中国中部、西部和东北地区占主导地位。结果表明，中国交通运输与区域发展的因果关系占双向因果关系的45%，占单向因果关系的37%，占无因果关系的10%，占单向因果关系的8%。

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2019 5th International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS)

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