Modelling and dynamics of intramammary infections caused by Corynebacterium species

A. Rachah, G. Dalen, O. Reksen, Håvard Nørstebø, J. Barlow
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Abstract

We present a deterministic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of intramammary infections (IMI) caused by Corynebacterium spp. (Corynebacterium species) in lactating dairy herds. Longitudinal, quantitative, dynamic models are likely to be valuable for predicting infections outbreak risk, quantify the effectiveness of response tactics and performing response planning. Previous investigations on IMI have considered the transmission of several bacterial pathogens, but not Corynebacterium spp., in modelling investigations. We have established a new Corynebacterium spp. SnISw compartmental model subject on appropriate unknown parameters that we estimated by using a deterministic approach, based on real data fitting procedure. The real data, from which the parameters of the model are estimated, were obtained in a field trial conducted in a New York dairy herd (US).
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棒状杆菌引起的乳腺内感染的建模和动力学
我们提出了一个确定性的数学模型,描述了由棒状杆菌引起的乳内感染(IMI)在哺乳期奶牛群中的传播动力学。纵向、定量、动态模型对于预测感染爆发风险、量化应对策略的有效性和执行应对计划可能很有价值。先前对IMI的调查在建模调查中考虑了几种细菌病原体的传播,但没有考虑棒状杆菌。在实际数据拟合过程的基础上,采用确定性方法估计了合适的未知参数,建立了一个新的棒状杆菌SnISw室室模型。模型参数估计的真实数据是在纽约奶牛群(美国)进行的现场试验中获得的。
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