Application of AHP for Liquefaction Risk Assessment of Bulk Mineral Ores during Marine Transportation

Abstract

Bulk mineral ores are susceptible to liquefaction when being shipped in ocean bulk carriers. The liquefaction may occur suddenly and cause a dangerous list or even capsize of the vessel. In order to evaluate the liquefaction potential of the mineral ores during ocean shipping, this paper established a liquefaction risk assessment model for mineral ores through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). An evaluation index system of liquefaction risk was constructed into an orderly hierarchical structure. Three crucial factors including vibration acceleration, moisture content and fine particles, were pairwise compared during the process. The order of the priority weight for the factors was moisture content (0.5834) > vibration acceleration (0.333) > fine particles content (0.0833). The risk value and value range of each factor were assigned on a five-point scale. Consequently, the overall value of the liquefaction risk was computed and the corresponding likelihood of liquefaction occurrence was assessed and validated. The liquefaction risk assessment model of bulk mineral ores was reasonable, which could provide useful information to avoid liquefaction of bulk mineral ores.