Probabilistic Economic and Adequacy Evaluation of the Zero-Carbon Power Systems with CCUS

Abstract

Under the ambition of carbon neutrality, the new energy installed capacity witnesses rapid growth worldwide. Therefore, with the goal of minimizing load shedding and maximizing new energy consumption in zero-carbon power systems, this study proposes a probabilistic economic and adequacy evaluation method. First, the paper modeled coal-fired power plants with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) equipment, concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with thermal energy storage (TES) systems, wind power plants, photovoltaic power plants and battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the zero-carbon power system. In the coal-fired power plants with CCUS equipment, the constraints of electric power output and zero carbon emissions were considered; considering the time-series state of charge constraint, a model of the battery energy storage system was established; considering the SOC of the thermal energy storage system and power balance constraints, a CSP plant model was established. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used to build the process framework of probabilistic economic and adequacy evaluation. The uncertainty of new energy sources and load, and the stochastic outage of components are all considered in the framework. The effectiveness of the probabilistic economic and adequacy evaluation method for the zero-carbon power system was verified by the in-depth analysis of the modified IEEE RTS79.