Factors Influencing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in South Asian Economies: An Econometric Analysis

Mohammed Syedul Islam
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Abstract

Climate Change and global warming are two concerning issues in the contemporary world. Greenhouse Gas emissions particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are responsible for this climate change. Both natural and human made factors causes excessive CO2 emissions. This paper investigates the relationship between CO2 emissions and its human made causes such as fossil fuel energy consumption, income, agricultural production, population and forest in South Asian countries. Although pooled OLS, fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) model have been used in this study, the best fitting FE model shows that the highest effect on CO2 emissions was found for GDP while the lowest on it was for fossil fuel energy consumption. Though the study declared the validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, contribution of forest over CO2 emissions is out of expectation (though statistically insignificant). Therefore, further research is required to re-investigate the influence of forest toward CO2 emissions to justify the REDD+ program in South Asia.
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影响南亚经济体二氧化碳排放的因素:计量经济学分析
气候变化和全球变暖是当今世界关注的两个问题。温室气体排放,特别是二氧化碳(CO2)的排放是造成这种气候变化的原因。自然和人为因素都会导致二氧化碳的过量排放。本文研究了南亚国家二氧化碳排放与其人为因素(如化石燃料能源消耗、收入、农业生产、人口和森林)之间的关系。虽然本研究使用了混合OLS、固定效应(FE)和随机效应(RE)模型,但拟合最佳的FE模型表明,GDP对二氧化碳排放的影响最大,而化石燃料能源消费对二氧化碳排放的影响最小。虽然该研究宣布了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设的有效性,但森林对二氧化碳排放的贡献超出了预期(尽管统计上不显著)。因此,需要进一步的研究来重新调查森林对二氧化碳排放的影响,以证明REDD+计划在南亚的合理性。
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