Exploring the Nexus Between Organizational Anticipation and Adaptation in Crisis Management

Abstract

Organizational anticipation involves the ability to foresee and analyze potential threats and disturbances as a means to minimize the likelihood of hazard occurrence and to reduce the potential impacts. Common methods include Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (RVAs) and contingency planning, where potentially harmful events are identified and analyzed, and where measures to prevent, respond to and recover from these events are suggested. This includes the development of plans and procedures for what actions to take in case calamities, identified in the assessment, occur. While highly important as a strategy to risk reduction, these anticipatory efforts will never be sufficient for eliminating and treating all potential threats, especially in situations characterized by large uncertainties and high complexities. In the last decade, the dangers of black swan events, i.e. surprising events that have not been anticipated, have gained increased attention to illuminate the limits of the anticipatory approach. As a complement, many scholars have therefore highlighted the value of promoting adaptive capacities as a means to perform resiliently and reduce risks in the face of sudden disturbances. Despite clear interconnections, the anticipatory and adaptive perspectives have been studied in partly disparate scientific strands of research. The purpose of this paper is to explore the nexus between these areas to provide ideas on how they can be combined in a proactive crisis management setting. The paper constitutes a continuation of a three-year researcher-practitioner collaboration in the municipality of Malmo, Sweden, where a method for RVA previously has been developed. The method relies strongly on an anticipatory perspective, but the occurrence of Covid-19 has highlighted the need to integrate or complement it with efforts that facilitate adaptative behavior in the face of sudden shocks and disturbances. The paper draws on a literature review of the anticipatory and adaptive perspectives, focusing on how the anticipatory perspective can be complemented with actions that promotes adaptative capacity. Particular emphasis is placed on the applicability of the adaptive approaches identified in the literature for the context of municipal RVA. © ESREL 2021. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore.