Pub Date : 2021-09-19DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_203-cd
L. Devaraj, A. Ruddle, Qazi Mashaal Khan, A. Duffy
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{"title":"Knowledge-Based Approach for System Level Electromagnetic Safety Analysis","authors":"L. Devaraj, A. Ruddle, Qazi Mashaal Khan, A. Duffy","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_203-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_203-cd","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131492928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-19DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_693-cd
D. Lemoine, B. Castanier
{"title":"How to Use Prescriptive Maintenance to Construct Robust Master Production Schedules","authors":"D. Lemoine, B. Castanier","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_693-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_693-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116299695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-19DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_154-cd
Jaber Al Rashid, M. Koohestani, L. Saintis, M. Barreau
Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) of integrated circuits (IC) should be within the desirable level for maintaining the functional safety and reliability of electronic systems in different complex automotive and aeronautical applications. Throughout the operational lifetime of ICs, harsh environmental conditions including extreme high or low temperature, humidity, shock, and stress tend to cause intrinsic physical degradations, which results in significant variations of long-life EMC performance of IC device. Consequently, ensuring along with maintaining electromagnetic robustness (EMR) and integrating IC reliability throughout their whole lifetime period is a key challenge that needs to be addressed. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive state-of-the-art study on developing accurate immunity and emission models of ICs focusing on quantitative evaluation of experimental characterization based on various IC EMC measurement methods under various ageing accelerated life tests. Producing accurate transient EMC models help not only estimate EMC immunity and emission levels of ICs but also allows determining different failure types and mechanisms due to radio frequency disturbance when applied to IC model structures. This paper presents a few recent researches on the conducted pulse immunity as well as emission models for ICs based on the IEC standard models, showcasing the electric fast transient (EFT) simulations and measurements applied on different IC pins considering the ageing impact. Previous studies demonstrated the importance of the ageing on the EMC performance of ICs depending on the ageing stress parameters. Future perspective of the current study would involve proposing and implementing predictive reliability model for the IC during its entire lifetime under accelerated life tests.
{"title":"A State-of-the-Art Review on IC EMC Reliability","authors":"Jaber Al Rashid, M. Koohestani, L. Saintis, M. Barreau","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_154-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_154-cd","url":null,"abstract":"Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) of integrated circuits (IC) should be within the desirable level for maintaining the functional safety and reliability of electronic systems in different complex automotive and aeronautical applications. Throughout the operational lifetime of ICs, harsh environmental conditions including extreme high or low temperature, humidity, shock, and stress tend to cause intrinsic physical degradations, which results in significant variations of long-life EMC performance of IC device. Consequently, ensuring along with maintaining electromagnetic robustness (EMR) and integrating IC reliability throughout their whole lifetime period is a key challenge that needs to be addressed. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive state-of-the-art study on developing accurate immunity and emission models of ICs focusing on quantitative evaluation of experimental characterization based on various IC EMC measurement methods under various ageing accelerated life tests. Producing accurate transient EMC models help not only estimate EMC immunity and emission levels of ICs but also allows determining different failure types and mechanisms due to radio frequency disturbance when applied to IC model structures. This paper presents a few recent researches on the conducted pulse immunity as well as emission models for ICs based on the IEC standard models, showcasing the electric fast transient (EFT) simulations and measurements applied on different IC pins considering the ageing impact. Previous studies demonstrated the importance of the ageing on the EMC performance of ICs depending on the ageing stress parameters. Future perspective of the current study would involve proposing and implementing predictive reliability model for the IC during its entire lifetime under accelerated life tests.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134098849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-19DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_380-cd
T. Chevet, T. N. Dinh, J. Marzat, T. Raïssi
This paper proposes a new interval observer for continuous-time linear parameter-varying systems with an unmeasurable parameter vector subject to unknown but bounded disturbances. The parameter-varying matrices are assumed to be elementwise bounded. This observer is used to compute a so-called residual interval used for sensor fault detection by checking if zero is contained in the interval. To attenuate the effect of the system's uncertainties on the detectability of faults, additional weighting matrices and different upper and lower observer gains are introduced, providing more degrees of freedom than the classical interval observer strategies. In addition, a $L_{infty}$ procedure is proposed to tune the value of the observer gains, this procedure being easy to modify to introduce additional constraints on the estimation algorithm. Simulations are run to show the efficiency of the proposed fault detection strategy.
{"title":"Robust Sensor Fault Detection for Linear Parameter-Varying Systems using Interval Observer","authors":"T. Chevet, T. N. Dinh, J. Marzat, T. Raïssi","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_380-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_380-cd","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a new interval observer for continuous-time linear parameter-varying systems with an unmeasurable parameter vector subject to unknown but bounded disturbances. The parameter-varying matrices are assumed to be elementwise bounded. This observer is used to compute a so-called residual interval used for sensor fault detection by checking if zero is contained in the interval. To attenuate the effect of the system's uncertainties on the detectability of faults, additional weighting matrices and different upper and lower observer gains are introduced, providing more degrees of freedom than the classical interval observer strategies. In addition, a $L_{infty}$ procedure is proposed to tune the value of the observer gains, this procedure being easy to modify to introduce additional constraints on the estimation algorithm. Simulations are run to show the efficiency of the proposed fault detection strategy.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131089948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-17DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_053-cd
A. Rawson, M. Brito
Subsea cables are critical infrastructure for the global economy but are vulnerable to the risks of anchor strikes from ships, causing significant damage and interrupting global telecommunications or power networks. Whilst methodologies have been proposed to aid decision makers with optimal routeing and mitigation strategies for these cables, such methods require definition of drag probabilities which thus far have not been empirically validated. In this paper, we present a framework through which anchor drag probabilities can be calculated through analysis of historical vessel traffic data and environmental conditions. Drag distances, probabilities and causal influences of conditions are shown through comparison of three million hours of vessel anchoring exposure. We show that the wind speed and wave height are the most significant factors for calculating the likelihood of anchor dragging, but other factors omitted in this study may also be influential. The results show that the method can improve the validity of Cable Burial Risk Assessments, supporting navigation authorities and developers with mitigating the risks to subsea cables.
{"title":"Empirical Analysis of Ship Anchor Drag Incidents for Cable Burial Risk Assessments","authors":"A. Rawson, M. Brito","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_053-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_053-cd","url":null,"abstract":"Subsea cables are critical infrastructure for the global economy but are vulnerable to the risks of anchor strikes from ships, causing significant damage and interrupting global telecommunications or power networks. Whilst methodologies have been proposed to aid decision makers with optimal routeing and mitigation strategies for these cables, such methods require definition of drag probabilities which thus far have not been empirically validated. In this paper, we present a framework through which anchor drag probabilities can be calculated through analysis of historical vessel traffic data and environmental conditions. Drag distances, probabilities and causal influences of conditions are shown through comparison of three million hours of vessel anchoring exposure. We show that the wind speed and wave height are the most significant factors for calculating the likelihood of anchor dragging, but other factors omitted in this study may also be influential. The results show that the method can improve the validity of Cable Burial Risk Assessments, supporting navigation authorities and developers with mitigating the risks to subsea cables.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132521140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_597-cd
Roberto Rocchetta
{"title":"New Probabilistic Guarantees on the Accuracy of Extreme Learning Machines: An Application to Decision-Making in a Reliability Context","authors":"Roberto Rocchetta","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_597-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_597-cd","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121139275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-28DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_161-cd
S. Tolo, R. Yan, S. Dunnett, J. Andrews
The concept of resilience is progressively making its way into the design, operation and management practice of complex engineering systems. The core of such trend lies with the integration of failure mechanisms in the modelling of systems since the very design phase, focusing on the ability to efficiently absorb and rapidly respond to threats rather than merely avoid them. This is expected to overcome the limitations of traditional design-against-failure approaches, whose efficiency is often undermined by the strong uncertainty associated with rare or hardly predictable hazards. However, the potential advantages such a theoretical shift delivers have not yet been matched by the availability of adequate numerical tools and methodologies targeting the challenges associated with resilience analyses. The current literature and engineering practice lack of a widely agreed upon methodology for the assessment of systems resilience, or even for the definition of its metrics. This study proposes a novel approach for the estimation of the dynamic response of complex systems to safety-threatening perturbations, aiming at providing a solid base for the evaluation of system resilience. The framework proposed relies on the use of Petri nets to capture both the physics of the processes entailed by the system operation and its interaction with the technological installation. The framework is applied to a case-study focusing on the response of a CANDU nuclear reactor to cyber incidents hindering the correct operation of the reactor control system and hence resulting in a loss of regulation threatening the structural integrity of the nuclear fuel.
{"title":"A Modelling Framework for Dynamic Safety Assessment","authors":"S. Tolo, R. Yan, S. Dunnett, J. Andrews","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_161-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_161-cd","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of resilience is progressively making its way into the design, operation and management practice of complex engineering systems. The core of such trend lies with the integration of failure mechanisms in the modelling of systems since the very design phase, focusing on the ability to efficiently absorb and rapidly respond to threats rather than merely avoid them. This is expected to overcome the limitations of traditional design-against-failure approaches, whose efficiency is often undermined by the strong uncertainty associated with rare or hardly predictable hazards. However, the potential advantages such a theoretical shift delivers have not yet been matched by the availability of adequate numerical tools and methodologies targeting the challenges associated with resilience analyses. The current literature and engineering practice lack of a widely agreed upon methodology for the assessment of systems resilience, or even for the definition of its metrics. This study proposes a novel approach for the estimation of the dynamic response of complex systems to safety-threatening perturbations, aiming at providing a solid base for the evaluation of system resilience. The framework proposed relies on the use of Petri nets to capture both the physics of the processes entailed by the system operation and its interaction with the technological installation. The framework is applied to a case-study focusing on the response of a CANDU nuclear reactor to cyber incidents hindering the correct operation of the reactor control system and hence resulting in a loss of regulation threatening the structural integrity of the nuclear fuel.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134222770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-28DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_194-cd
A. Jackson, S. Tolo, J. Andrews
The foundations of risk assessment tools such as fault tree analysis and event tree analysis were established in the 1970s. Since then, research has made considerable advances in the capabilities of analytical techniques applicable to safety critical systems. Technology has also advanced and system designs, their operation conditions and maintenance strategies are now significantly different to those of the 1970s. This paper presents an overview of a new methodology developed, retaining the traditional ways of expressing system failure causality, which aims to develop the next generation of risk assessment methodologies. These evolved techniques, appropriate to meet the demands of modern industrial systems, aim to overcome some of the limitations of the current approaches. These new tools and techniques will seek to retain as much of the current methodology features as possible to reduce the learning curve for practitioners and increase the chances of acceptance. The new approach aims to increase the scope of event tree/fault tree analysis through the incorporation of Petri net, Markov model, and binary decision diagram-based methodologies. Use of these techniques incorporates features such as: non-constant failure rates, dependencies between component failure events, and complex maintenance strategies to boost the capabilities of the methods. In addition, it considers dedicated routines to analyse the accident risk of transport systems formulated as phased mission models. This type of modelling is demonstrated through the application to an aeronautical system, where the system is modelled as a mission consisting of a series of phases. Mission success requires the successful completion of each of the phases. This approach allows the requirements for success (and therefore failure) to differ from one phase to another. It is also possible to model scenarios whereby a system fault that occurs in one phase of a mission may not affect the system until a later phase of the mission.
{"title":"Evolved Methods for Risk Assessment","authors":"A. Jackson, S. Tolo, J. Andrews","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_194-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_194-cd","url":null,"abstract":"The foundations of risk assessment tools such as fault tree analysis and event tree analysis were established in the 1970s. Since then, research has made considerable advances in the capabilities of analytical techniques applicable to safety critical systems. Technology has also advanced and system designs, their operation conditions and maintenance strategies are now significantly different to those of the 1970s. This paper presents an overview of a new methodology developed, retaining the traditional ways of expressing system failure causality, which aims to develop the next generation of risk assessment methodologies. These evolved techniques, appropriate to meet the demands of modern industrial systems, aim to overcome some of the limitations of the current approaches. These new tools and techniques will seek to retain as much of the current methodology features as possible to reduce the learning curve for practitioners and increase the chances of acceptance. The new approach aims to increase the scope of event tree/fault tree analysis through the incorporation of Petri net, Markov model, and binary decision diagram-based methodologies. Use of these techniques incorporates features such as: non-constant failure rates, dependencies between component failure events, and complex maintenance strategies to boost the capabilities of the methods. In addition, it considers dedicated routines to analyse the accident risk of transport systems formulated as phased mission models. This type of modelling is demonstrated through the application to an aeronautical system, where the system is modelled as a mission consisting of a series of phases. Mission success requires the successful completion of each of the phases. This approach allows the requirements for success (and therefore failure) to differ from one phase to another. It is also possible to model scenarios whereby a system fault that occurs in one phase of a mission may not affect the system until a later phase of the mission.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134298714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-20DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_335-cd
Clementina Ramirez Marengo, Marta Llobet Lopez, B. Maya, E. Giagloglou, A. Kilner, R. Kurt, O. Turan, Simone Pozzi
Human operators play a key role in the safe and successful conduct of maritime and aviation transport operations. Human error is often reported as a contributor to maritime and aviation accidents. Therefore, the implementation of human-informed design considerations is essential to improve safety and operational performance in both sectors, especially in the maritime sector, where there is a lack of an established framework to systematically consider human factors at the design stage. Therefore, the SAFEMODE project brings together key experts from both aviation and maritime sectors to address this important gap. The SAFEMODE project aims to deliver a framework that includes human factors considerations and enables designers to make risk-informed decisions. The methodological approach of SAFEMODE builds upon four areas: the collection and analysis of accident data; the development of a toolkit for human performance assurance, the development of Human Factors-based risk models and the creation of a framework to support risk-informed design. The type of safety events considered in SAFEMODE for both domains includes collision and grounding for the maritime sector, and runway collision, taxiway collision and wake vortex during en-route flight phase for the aviation sector. This paper will provide an insight into the efforts conducted as part of the SAFEMODE project to assess the human contribution to risk and the benefits of applying these models to support risk-informed decisions in design and operations.
{"title":"Safemode's Approach for Incorporating Human Factors into Risk-informed Design","authors":"Clementina Ramirez Marengo, Marta Llobet Lopez, B. Maya, E. Giagloglou, A. Kilner, R. Kurt, O. Turan, Simone Pozzi","doi":"10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_335-cd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_335-cd","url":null,"abstract":"Human operators play a key role in the safe and successful conduct of maritime and aviation transport operations. Human error is often reported as a contributor to maritime and aviation accidents. Therefore, the implementation of human-informed design considerations is essential to improve safety and operational performance in both sectors, especially in the maritime sector, where there is a lack of an established framework to systematically consider human factors at the design stage. Therefore, the SAFEMODE project brings together key experts from both aviation and maritime sectors to address this important gap. The SAFEMODE project aims to deliver a framework that includes human factors considerations and enables designers to make risk-informed decisions. The methodological approach of SAFEMODE builds upon four areas: the collection and analysis of accident data; the development of a toolkit for human performance assurance, the development of Human Factors-based risk models and the creation of a framework to support risk-informed design. The type of safety events considered in SAFEMODE for both domains includes collision and grounding for the maritime sector, and runway collision, taxiway collision and wake vortex during en-route flight phase for the aviation sector. This paper will provide an insight into the efforts conducted as part of the SAFEMODE project to assess the human contribution to risk and the benefits of applying these models to support risk-informed decisions in design and operations.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"3 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114088751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-25DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.22.21255946
A. Puls, S. Bracke
In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the globalized world. Restrictions on the public life and lockdowns of different characteristics define the life in many countries. This paper focuses on the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (01-28-2020 to 01-15-2021). As a transfer of methods used in reliability engineering for analyzing occurrence of infection, Weibull distribution models are used to evaluate the spreading behavior of COVID-19. Key issues of this study are the differences of spreading behavior in first and second pandemic phase and the various impacts of lockdown measures with different characteristics (hard, light). Therefore, the occurrence of infection in normed time periods with and without lockdown measures are analyzed in detail on the example of Germany representing the spreading behavior in Europe. Additional information in comparison to classical infection analyzes models like SIR model is generated by the application of Weibull distribution models with easy interpretable parameters and the dynamic development of COVID-19 is outlined. In a further step, the occurrence of infection of COVID-19 is put into the context of other common infectious diseases in Germany like Influenza or Norovirus to evaluate the infectiousness. Differences in spreading behavior of COVID-19 in comparison to these well-known infectious diseases are underlined for different pandemic phases.
{"title":"RELIABILITY METHODS FOR ANALYZING COVID-19 PANDEMIC SPREADING BEHAVIOR, LOCKDOWN IMPACT AND INFECTIOUSNESS","authors":"A. Puls, S. Bracke","doi":"10.1101/2021.04.22.21255946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.22.21255946","url":null,"abstract":"In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the globalized world. Restrictions on the public life and lockdowns of different characteristics define the life in many countries. This paper focuses on the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (01-28-2020 to 01-15-2021). As a transfer of methods used in reliability engineering for analyzing occurrence of infection, Weibull distribution models are used to evaluate the spreading behavior of COVID-19. Key issues of this study are the differences of spreading behavior in first and second pandemic phase and the various impacts of lockdown measures with different characteristics (hard, light). Therefore, the occurrence of infection in normed time periods with and without lockdown measures are analyzed in detail on the example of Germany representing the spreading behavior in Europe. Additional information in comparison to classical infection analyzes models like SIR model is generated by the application of Weibull distribution models with easy interpretable parameters and the dynamic development of COVID-19 is outlined. In a further step, the occurrence of infection of COVID-19 is put into the context of other common infectious diseases in Germany like Influenza or Norovirus to evaluate the infectiousness. Differences in spreading behavior of COVID-19 in comparison to these well-known infectious diseases are underlined for different pandemic phases.","PeriodicalId":187633,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129196223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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