An Assessment of the Smart COVID-19 Approach to Lockdown and its Empirical Evidence

Abdul Ghaffar, M. Munir, Osama Aziz, Rada Alhajj, Asif Sanaullah
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

COVID-19 is a new and contagious disease that has changed human lifestyle and habits globally according to the directions provided by the World Health Organization (WHO). Until some authentic remedy or vaccine becomes available, every country is providing instructions to its public to follow precautionary measures. These measures may include lockdown, social distancing, restricting movement, and educating public about COVID-19. Lockdown is the most applied and successful way to control the virus spread and it remains helpful in curtailing the spike. However, it adversely affects developing countries like Pakistan. All types of lockdown disrupt the life of the poor and the middle class. In this paper, an intelligent-smart approach is suggested for developing countries as against complete lockdown to handle the pandemic. This approach will show the long-term results needed for controlling COVID-19 without creating any major disturbance in the economy. In this paper, evidence based approaches were used to evaluate the short-term and long-term effects of the daily increasing number of cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The results showed that Sindh, which has the maximum number of COVID-19 cases, is better in implementing smart lockdown as compared to other administrative regions of Pakistan. As the risk of the second wave of COVID-19 is enhanced, it would be effective to continue the intelligent-smart approach with mild SOPs to avoid the disastrous effects of COVID-19 in the future. Received Date: May 14, 2020, Last Received:  December 10, 2020 Acceptance:  December  25, 2020  
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新型冠状病毒智能封城方法评估及其经验证据
根据世界卫生组织(WHO)的指示,新冠肺炎是一种改变全球人类生活方式和习惯的新型传染病。在出现一些真正的补救措施或疫苗之前,每个国家都在向其公众提供指示,要求他们采取预防措施。这些措施可能包括封锁、保持社交距离、限制行动以及对公众进行COVID-19教育。封锁是控制病毒传播最有效和最成功的方法,它仍然有助于遏制疫情飙升。然而,它对巴基斯坦等发展中国家产生了不利影响。各种封锁扰乱了穷人和中产阶级的生活。本文提出了发展中国家应对新冠肺炎疫情的“智能-智能”对策。这种方法将显示出控制COVID-19所需的长期结果,而不会对经济造成任何重大干扰。本文采用基于证据的方法评估了巴基斯坦每日新增COVID-19病例数量的短期和长期影响。结果显示,新冠肺炎确诊病例最多的信德省与巴基斯坦其他行政区相比,在实施智能封锁方面做得更好。在第二波疫情风险加大的情况下,继续以温和的标准操作规程(sop)为基础,采取智能-智能的方式,避免未来疫情带来的灾难性影响是有效的。收稿日期:2020年5月14日,收稿日期:2020年12月10日。录用日期:2020年12月25日
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