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An Analysis of Child Labor and its Subjective Well-being: Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan 童工及其主观幸福感分析:来自巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省的证据
Pub Date : 2022-12-30 DOI: 10.29145/eer.52.05
Shehla Jalil, D. Alam
This study investigates the determinants of child labor, the factors that constitute the welfare of child labor, and the factors that determine the welfare of child labor by providing evidence from three major populated districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), namely, Mardan, Peshawar, and Swat. This employs a structured questionnaire methodology and collects data from 200 households in each district. The research further applies Probit model to estimate the determinants of child labor and finds that income level of household, household head’s employment, household head’s education, joint family structure, and residence in urban location reduces the likelihood of child labor. However, household’s head age, household’ size, debt, and economic shock increase the likelihood of child labor. Additionally, this study uses Rees Good Childhood index to measure and compare the welfare of child labor and non-child labor. The findings suggest that child labor has a lower welfare level as compared to non-child labor. Finally, the OLS technique is applied to estimate the determinants of the welfare of child labor. The findings suggest that the wage of child, safety measures at the workplace, leisure, age, and education promote the welfare of child labor. However, the number of working hours, abuse, and hazardous work, adversely affect welfare of child labor.
本研究通过提供来自开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省(KP)三个主要人口稠密地区,即马尔丹、白沙瓦和斯瓦特的证据,调查了童工的决定因素、构成童工福利的因素以及决定童工福利的因素。本研究采用结构化问卷调查方法,收集各区200户家庭的数据。研究进一步运用Probit模型估算童工的影响因素,发现家庭收入水平、户主就业、户主受教育程度、联合家庭结构和城市居住地降低了童工发生的可能性。然而,户主年龄、家庭规模、债务和经济冲击增加了童工的可能性。此外,本研究使用Rees美好童年指数来衡量和比较童工和非童工的福利。研究结果表明,与非童工相比,童工的福利水平较低。最后,应用OLS技术估计童工福利的决定因素。研究结果表明,童工的工资、工作场所的安全措施、闲暇时间、年龄和教育程度都能促进童工的福利。然而,工作时间、虐待和危险工作对童工的福利产生了不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Opportunities, Competitiveness, and Trade Potential in Pakistan: An Analysis of GCC Regional Countries 巴基斯坦的贸易机会、竞争力和贸易潜力:海湾合作委员会地区国家分析
Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.29145/eer.52.04
Nadia Gohar, M. Irshad, Saima Liaqat, Aminah Khawer
Pakistan and GCC region share a common religion and cultural characteristics, increasing their importance to Pakistan regarding trade policy. To promote economic, cultural, and technical cooperation with GCC members, Pakistan is committed to signing a free trade arrangement with GCC. This paper aims to examine Pakistan's trade opportunities, competitiveness, and trade potential in the GCC region during 2003-2017. The result shows that Pakistan has the maximum comparative and competitive advantage with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and UAE amongst GCC countries. PPML shows that the main trade indicators responsible for Pakistan’s bilateral trade enhancement are GDP in both countries and partner country trade openness. Amongst the GCC countries, Pakistan has the highest trade potential with Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. In contrast, with UAE and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has a lower trade potential than the rest of the countries. Therefore, Pakistan needs to sign FTA with GCC before boosting their mutual trade and cooperation.
巴基斯坦和海湾合作委员会地区具有共同的宗教和文化特征,这增加了它们在巴基斯坦贸易政策方面的重要性。为促进与海湾合作委员会成员国的经济、文化和技术合作,巴基斯坦承诺与海湾合作委员会签署自由贸易安排。本文旨在研究2003-2017年期间巴基斯坦在海湾合作委员会地区的贸易机会、竞争力和贸易潜力。结果表明,在海湾合作委员会国家中,巴基斯坦与巴林、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋相比具有最大的比较和竞争优势。PPML表明,对巴基斯坦双边贸易提升负责的主要贸易指标是两国国内生产总值和伙伴国贸易开放度。在海湾合作委员会国家中,巴基斯坦与巴林、科威特和卡塔尔的贸易潜力最大。相比之下,与阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯相比,巴基斯坦的贸易潜力低于其他国家。因此,巴基斯坦需要与海合会签署自贸协定,才能促进双方的贸易与合作。
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引用次数: 0
Farmers’ Characteristics, Crop Diversification and Agricultural Constraints affecting Crop Cultivation in Sindh province of Pakistan: An Empirical Evidence 影响巴基斯坦信德省作物种植的农民特征、作物多样化和农业制约因素:经验证据
Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.29145/eer.52.02
M. A. Talpur, Syed Faisal Hyder Shah Shah, Abdul Razzaque Channa
This paper investigates various factors affecting crop cultivation both in negative and positive ways in the Sindh province of Pakistan. To undertake our analysis, we conducted face-to-face face interviews with farmers using a pre-tested questionnaire and both judgment and simple random sampling methods in the two districts, namely Hyderabad and Matiari, of Sindh province. Our multiple linear regression results capture the influence of various factors; including farmers’ characteristics (e.g. their age, education, and tenancy) and crop diversification (or crop varieties) in addition to main agricultural constraints, such as water scarcity, barren and salinized land, lack of financial resources, discouraging crop cultivation in the province. In the light of our results, we proposed several suggestions for the decision-makers involved in agricultural policymaking, specifically in the Sindh province of Pakistan. 
本文调查了巴基斯坦信德省影响作物种植的各种因素,包括消极和积极的方式。为了进行分析,我们在信德省海得拉巴和马提亚里两个地区使用预试问卷和判断法和简单随机抽样法对农民进行了面对面访谈。我们的多元线性回归结果捕捉到各种因素的影响;除了主要的农业制约因素,如缺水、土地贫瘠和盐碱化、缺乏财政资源等,还包括农民的特征(如年龄、教育程度和租赁情况)和作物多样化(或作物品种),阻碍了该省的作物种植。根据我们的研究结果,我们为参与农业政策制定的决策者提出了几点建议,特别是在巴基斯坦信德省。
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引用次数: 1
Macro-Stress Testing NPLs in the Banking Sector in Namibia 纳米比亚银行业不良贷款的宏观压力测试
Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.29145/eer.52.03
Reinhold Kamati, A. William, G. Kadhikwa, Postrik Mushendami
This paper examined the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely real GDP growth, house price growth and changes in the repo rate on the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Namibia using data from 2004Q1 to 2020Q1. The study used a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model and impulse response analysis to estimate the impact of changes in macroeconomic conditions on NPLs, and further conducted stress testings on NPL ratio over 4 - 6 quarter horizons. Empirical evidence from this study shows that macroeconomic variables such as real GDP growth rate, the house price growth rate and the repo rate have a statistically significant impact, and material impact on the non-performing loans in the banking sector in Namibia. Largely, a positive growth rate shock in a quarter will reduce NPL ratio by more than half percentage point over two quarters. Similarly, a positive shock of about 4.0 percent in a quarter will reduce NPL ratio by more than 1.2 percentage points over four quarter horizons. Macro-stress-testing results revealed that a deterioration of the GDP growth rate by more than one standard deviation will increase the NPL ratio from 2.46 to 2.78 over four quarter horizons. Meanwhile, the combined effects of deteriorating the GDP growth rate and falling house prices further exacerbated the vulnerability of the banking sector. This study contributes to our understanding of the interplay between macroeconomic conditions and financial sector resilience in Namibia. In practical application, it shows that macro-stress testing techniques are useful to study the importance of macro-financial and feedback effects from the financial sector to the real economy. Technically, central banks must develop models that capture important macro-financial and feedback effects, and regulatory attention must be devoted to monitoring spillover effects from worsening financial conditions to the real economy.
本文使用2004年第一季度至2020年第一季度的数据,研究了宏观经济变量(即实际GDP增长、房价增长和回购利率变化)对纳米比亚不良贷款率的影响。该研究使用向量自回归(VAR)模型和脉冲响应分析来估计宏观经济状况变化对不良贷款的影响,并进一步对4 - 6个季度的不良贷款率进行了压力测试。本研究的实证证据表明,实际GDP增长率、房价增长率和回购利率等宏观经济变量对纳米比亚银行业不良贷款的影响具有统计显著性,并具有实质性影响。在很大程度上,一个季度的正增长率冲击将使不良贷款率在两个季度内下降0.5个百分点以上。同样,季度内约4.0%的正面冲击将使不良贷款率在四个季度内减少逾1.2个百分点。宏观压力测试结果显示,GDP增长率恶化超过一个标准差,将使不良贷款率在四个季度内从2.46增加到2.78。与此同时,GDP增长率恶化和房价下跌的共同影响进一步加剧了银行业的脆弱性。这项研究有助于我们理解纳米比亚宏观经济条件与金融部门弹性之间的相互作用。实际应用表明,宏观压力测试技术有助于研究宏观金融的重要性以及金融部门对实体经济的反馈效应。从技术上讲,央行必须开发能够捕捉重要的宏观金融和反馈效应的模型,监管机构必须关注监测金融状况恶化对实体经济的溢出效应。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Relationship between Project Planning and Timely Completion of a Project through Confirmatory Factor Analysis 通过验证性因素分析探讨项目计划与项目按时完成之间的关系
Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.29145/eer.52.01
Naukhaiz Chaudhry, Misheal Ayaz, Dr Khalil-ur-Rehman Wahla, Dr Muhammad Usman
Real estate market and housing projects play a vital role in the economy of Pakistan. This study has been conducted with an aim to explore the relationship between project planning factors & on-time completion of real estate projects in Pakistan. Sample data comprised of 440 observations was collected through structured questionnaire from contractors, managers, engineers and supervisors related to construction projects. Confirmatory Factor Analysis has been used along with validity and reliability tests to conclude the significant factors. Through binary logistics regression, study concluded that various internal & external factors like “contractor related causes”, “material, labor and equipment related causes” and “contract relationships related causes” have significant impact on timely completion of the project.
房地产市场和住房项目在巴基斯坦经济中起着至关重要的作用。本研究旨在探讨项目规划因素与巴基斯坦房地产项目按时完工之间的关系。样本数据由440个观察组成,通过结构化问卷从与建设项目有关的承包商、经理、工程师和主管中收集。验证性因子分析结合效度和信度检验,得出显著性因子。通过二元logistic回归,研究得出“承包商相关原因”、“材料、人工、设备相关原因”、“合同关系相关原因”等各种内外部因素对工程按时完工有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the Impact of Coronavirus at Grassroot Level in Pakistan: Perils, Pitfalls and Preventive Strategies 衡量冠状病毒在巴基斯坦基层的影响:危险、陷阱和预防战略
Pub Date : 2020-12-30 DOI: 10.29145/eer/32/030204
Memoona Zareen, Nawaz Ahmad, Munazza Arif
At the forefront of strategists and policymakers' minds stand the catastrophic circumstances of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Severe trauma of unprecedented economic shocks and financial crises brought the country's mechanism to experience a sudden halt.  It is necessary to consider how to accelerate recovery and mitigate the spread of negative consequences affecting sectors, industries, institutions, and diverse ventures. Amidst the existing vulnerabilities imposed by inadequate resources and constrained mobility of necessities, the sustainable measures balancing costs and benefits will equip Pakistani communities to fight the corona war proficiently. We analyze the size of adversities hurting various types of individuals, variations in an inflow of economic and financial activities, and reactions to massive disturbances, albeit to different levels. Aligned with in-depth insights and findings, the development of preventive strategies in these desperate times can protect Pakistan's economy from long-lasting disruptions, landing on the safe zone over the coming years. Received Date: October 13, 2020   Last Received:  December 10, 2020  Acceptance:  December  30, 2020    
战略家和政策制定者最关心的是2019冠状病毒病在巴基斯坦造成的灾难性情况。前所未有的经济冲击和金融危机带来的严重创伤使国家的机制突然停止。有必要考虑如何加速复苏,并减轻影响部门、产业、机构和各种企业的负面影响的蔓延。在资源不足和必需品流动受限造成的现有脆弱性中,平衡成本和收益的可持续措施将使巴基斯坦社区能够熟练地应对冠状病毒战争。我们分析了伤害不同类型个体的逆境的大小,经济和金融活动流入的变化,以及对大规模骚乱的反应,尽管程度不同。根据深入的见解和调查结果,在这个绝望的时刻制定预防性战略可以保护巴基斯坦经济免受长期破坏,在未来几年进入安全区。收稿日期:2020年10月13日收稿日期:2020年12月10日录用日期:2020年12月30日
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引用次数: 0
An Assessment of the Smart COVID-19 Approach to Lockdown and its Empirical Evidence 新型冠状病毒智能封城方法评估及其经验证据
Pub Date : 2020-12-24 DOI: 10.29145/eer/32/030203
Abdul Ghaffar, M. Munir, Osama Aziz, Rada Alhajj, Asif Sanaullah
COVID-19 is a new and contagious disease that has changed human lifestyle and habits globally according to the directions provided by the World Health Organization (WHO). Until some authentic remedy or vaccine becomes available, every country is providing instructions to its public to follow precautionary measures. These measures may include lockdown, social distancing, restricting movement, and educating public about COVID-19. Lockdown is the most applied and successful way to control the virus spread and it remains helpful in curtailing the spike. However, it adversely affects developing countries like Pakistan. All types of lockdown disrupt the life of the poor and the middle class. In this paper, an intelligent-smart approach is suggested for developing countries as against complete lockdown to handle the pandemic. This approach will show the long-term results needed for controlling COVID-19 without creating any major disturbance in the economy. In this paper, evidence based approaches were used to evaluate the short-term and long-term effects of the daily increasing number of cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The results showed that Sindh, which has the maximum number of COVID-19 cases, is better in implementing smart lockdown as compared to other administrative regions of Pakistan. As the risk of the second wave of COVID-19 is enhanced, it would be effective to continue the intelligent-smart approach with mild SOPs to avoid the disastrous effects of COVID-19 in the future. Received Date: May 14, 2020, Last Received:  December 10, 2020 Acceptance:  December  25, 2020  
根据世界卫生组织(WHO)的指示,新冠肺炎是一种改变全球人类生活方式和习惯的新型传染病。在出现一些真正的补救措施或疫苗之前,每个国家都在向其公众提供指示,要求他们采取预防措施。这些措施可能包括封锁、保持社交距离、限制行动以及对公众进行COVID-19教育。封锁是控制病毒传播最有效和最成功的方法,它仍然有助于遏制疫情飙升。然而,它对巴基斯坦等发展中国家产生了不利影响。各种封锁扰乱了穷人和中产阶级的生活。本文提出了发展中国家应对新冠肺炎疫情的“智能-智能”对策。这种方法将显示出控制COVID-19所需的长期结果,而不会对经济造成任何重大干扰。本文采用基于证据的方法评估了巴基斯坦每日新增COVID-19病例数量的短期和长期影响。结果显示,新冠肺炎确诊病例最多的信德省与巴基斯坦其他行政区相比,在实施智能封锁方面做得更好。在第二波疫情风险加大的情况下,继续以温和的标准操作规程(sop)为基础,采取智能-智能的方式,避免未来疫情带来的灾难性影响是有效的。收稿日期:2020年5月14日,收稿日期:2020年12月10日。录用日期:2020年12月25日
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引用次数: 5
The Nexus of COVID-19 Pandemic, Foreign Exchange Rates, and Short-Term Returns COVID-19大流行、汇率和短期回报的关系
Pub Date : 2020-11-13 DOI: 10.29145/eer/32/030201
A. Chaudhry
The current study examines short-term abnormal returns of eight major currencies including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/AUD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/CNY, USD/JPY, and USD/SEK in response to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic using event study approach in three different scenarios. Firstly, short-term abnormal returns of major currencies are estimated on the day of World Health Organization’s (WHO) announcement declaring COVID-19 as a pandemic. Secondly, they are estimated on the day of the announcement of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the respective country. Thirdly, they are estimated on the day of the announcement of the first death from COVID-19 in each country. The results provided evidence that major currency investors earned positive returns in these three different scenarios. The implications of the current study are more important than anticipated. Government policymakers, foreign exchange market regulators, and foreign exchange market participants can anticipate short-term returns while establishing foreign exchange policies, designing rules and regulations, and finalizing trading and hedging strategies, respectively, in situations such as the current COVID-19 pandemic.  Received Date: September 20, 20202      Last Received:   October 23, 2020     Acceptance: November 13, 2020
本研究采用事件研究方法,在三种不同情景下考察了欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/澳元、美元/加元、美元/瑞士法郎、美元/人民币、美元/日元和美元/瑞典克朗等八种主要货币在COVID-19大流行演变中的短期异常回报。首先,在世界卫生组织(WHO)宣布新冠肺炎疫情为大流行的当天,主要货币的短期异常收益被预测。第二,是在该国宣布第一例新冠肺炎确诊病例当日的估计数。第三,在每个国家宣布第一例COVID-19死亡当日进行估计。研究结果证明,在这三种不同的情况下,主要货币投资者获得了正回报。当前研究的意义比预期的更重要。在当前COVID-19大流行等情况下,政府决策者、外汇市场监管机构和外汇市场参与者可以分别在制定外汇政策、设计规则和法规以及确定交易和对冲策略时预测短期回报。收稿日期:2020年9月20日收稿日期:2020年10月23日录用日期:2020年11月13日
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引用次数: 0
Happiness and Spirituality: An Empirical Analysis using Divine Perspectives in Pakistan 幸福与灵性:在巴基斯坦使用神圣视角的实证分析
Pub Date : 2019-07-15 DOI: 10.29145/EER/21/020105
S. Abidi, Muhammad Tariq Majeed
Happiness is the center of discussion among philosophers, theologians, psychologists and more recently among economists from past few decades. Easterlin (1974) claimed that money alone cannot buy happiness, factors such as social interactions, socio-demographic factors, religion and personal values influence happiness. Abundant literature has been produced on spirituality by philosophers and scholars of different religions, however, spirituality-happiness literature from Islamic point of view and particularly in the case of Muslim society is largely ignored. This study analytically explores and empirically tests the relationship between spirituality and happiness using Divine Economics Framework in case of 5 districts of Azad Kashmir (Pakistan), collected through Divine Economics Survey 2013. Findings of the study show that spirituality intrinsically matters in producing wellbeing and happiness.
过去几十年来,幸福一直是哲学家、神学家、心理学家以及最近的经济学家讨论的中心。伊斯特林(1974)认为金钱本身不能买到幸福,社会交往、社会人口因素、宗教和个人价值观等因素都会影响幸福。不同宗教的哲学家和学者们已经创作了大量关于灵性的文学作品,然而,从伊斯兰的角度,特别是在穆斯林社会的情况下,灵性幸福文学在很大程度上被忽视了。本研究使用神圣经济学框架,以2013年神圣经济学调查收集的巴基斯坦阿扎德克什米尔5个地区为例,对灵性与幸福之间的关系进行了分析探索和实证检验。研究结果表明,精神本质上对产生幸福和快乐很重要。
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引用次数: 3
Macroeconomic Analysis of Export Diversification in Nigeria 尼日利亚出口多样化的宏观经济分析
Pub Date : 2019-07-15 DOI: 10.29145/EER/21/020104
Martins Iyoboyi
In this paper, the Theil index was utilized to study the impact of macroeconomic variables on diversification in Nigeria for the period 1981-2015, using the bounds test approach to cointegration on data generated from secondary sources. Cointegration was found to exist between the economic diversification indicators and associated variables. We also found that capital formation, real effective exchange rate, domestic credit to private sector and foreign direct investment promote diversification. Government efforts in Nigeria should be geared towards diversifying the economy using oil revenue, promote foreign direct investment in the non-oil sector, provide fixed capital, encourage the flow of credit to the private sector, and implement a cautious exchange rate regime.
本文利用Theil指数对尼日利亚1981-2015年期间宏观经济变量对多元化的影响进行了研究,对二手来源的数据采用了协整的边界检验方法。经济多样化指标与相关变量之间存在协整关系。我们还发现,资本形成、实际有效汇率、对私营部门的国内信贷和外国直接投资促进了多样化。尼日利亚政府的努力应着眼于利用石油收入使经济多样化,促进非石油部门的外国直接投资,提供固定资本,鼓励信贷流向私营部门,并执行谨慎的汇率制度。
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引用次数: 3
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Empirical Economic Review
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