Spatial analysis of border closure intervention scheme in conflict-induced displacement

Abstract

Since 2011, Syria has experienced episodes of large-scale conflict and violence. Syrian Civil War has exposed the global society to increasingly flow of refugees who are forcibly displaced from their homes due to persecution, conflict, violence, or human rights violations. The inconsistent responses from humanitarian organisations and governments indicate lack of robust framework to assess and evaluate policy responses. In this article, we examine the effect of border control policies via a data-driven agent-based model of refugee flows from Syria. We implement policy scenarios and investigate the consequences in the flow pattern in terms of measuring the size of flows and the potential destinations. We demonstrate that the spatial configuration of borders intended to be closed directly influence the consequences of the corresponding closure policy.