Trends in the French commercial farm population

M. Roger, M. Fall, L. Piet
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Knowledge and projection of farm numbers and the structure of their population is an important issue for agricultural economists and policy makers. Although Markov chain models have enjoyed decades of popularity in forecasting total farm numbers, they generally fail to provide a detailed insight of the farm population’s structure; to overcome this caveat we estimate a parametric distribution of the utilized agricultural area of French commercial farms. Our method provides detailed information on the structure of the population and accounts for the specificity of off-land farming. We also model the influence of variables such as the farm’s legal status, type of farming and farm holder’s age. The estimation leads to a relevant description of the entire population of professional farm. When compared with the 2005 Farm Structure Survey data, our simulations based on FADN data display a close match across a number of key variables.
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法国商业农场人口的趋势
对农业经济学家和政策制定者来说,了解和预测农场数量及其人口结构是一个重要问题。尽管马尔可夫链模型在预测农场总数方面已经流行了几十年,但它们通常无法提供农场人口结构的详细信息;为了克服这一警告,我们估计了法国商业农场利用农业面积的参数分布。我们的方法提供了有关人口结构的详细信息,并说明了非土地农业的特殊性。我们还对农场的法律地位、耕作类型和农场主年龄等变量的影响进行了建模。这样的估计可以对整个专业农场的人口进行相关的描述。当与2005年农场结构调查数据进行比较时,我们基于FADN数据的模拟显示,在许多关键变量之间存在密切匹配。
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