防疫保單之亂對台灣產物保險業股價的影響

Abstract

本文採用事件研究法來檢驗防疫保單之亂對產物保險業股價的影響。本文定義兩個重要事件，一為2022年4月7日疫情指揮中心首次提出「從清零走向與病毒共存」的政策宣告，二為現金增資宣告。實證結果發現從清零走向與病毒共存之宣告存在正向效果，隱含經濟活動即將復甦，投資人已提前反應並持續看好至事件發生後第四天才收斂。收斂原因係事件發生後第五天投資人明確接收到「理賠從寬認定」的訊號並反應在股價上產生顯著超常負報酬。第二現金增資宣告效果對於擁有產物保險子公司之金控公司不存在，未引起恐慌。但對於專營再保險的公司以及大股東為汽車製造業的公司而言，現金增資宣告存在負向效果，但很快收斂。本文實證結果將有助分析未來類防疫保單出現時防疫政策改變對股價的影響，及作為未來投資決策參考方向。  This paper uses the event study to test the impact of the pandemic policy storm on the stock price of Taiwan property insurance industry. This study defines two important events, one is the policy announcement that the Epidemic Command Center first proposed “from zero to coexist with the virus” on April 7, 2022, and the second is the announcement of seasoned equity offerings. Empirical results found that there is a positive effect from the declaration of clearing to coexistence with the virus, implying that economic activities are about to recover, and investors have reacted in advance and continued to be optimistic until the fourth day after the event. The reason for the convergence is that on the fifth day after the event, the investor clearly received the signal of "claims leniency determination" and reflected a significant abnormal negative return on the stock price. The effect of the second seasoned equity offerings announcement does not exist for the financial holding company that owns a product insurance subsidiary, which does not cause panic. However, for companies specializing in reinsurance and companies whose major shareholders are in the automobile manufacturing industry, the seasoned equity offerings announced that there is a negative effect exists, but it will soon subside. The empirical results of this paper will help analyze the impact of changes in pandemic policies on stock prices when future pandemic policies appear, and serve as a reference direction for future investment decisions.