A performance comparison of probabilistic techniques for electricity market simulation

P. Fonseka, Z. Dong, T. K. Saha
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Abstract

This paper compares the performances of two probabilistic techniques, namely (i) two-point estimate (2PE) method and (ii) Monte Carlo (MC) method, when modelling the uncertainties in market simulation. The demand, bid price, and capacity offer quantities are modelled as uncertain variables. A generalized zonal market model has been analysed with relaxed generation and network representation. A simplified version of National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia has been studied and results are discussed.
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电力市场模拟的概率技术性能比较
本文比较了两点估计(2PE)方法和蒙特卡罗(MC)方法两种概率技术在模拟市场不确定性时的性能。需求、投标价格和产能提供数量被建模为不确定变量。分析了具有松弛生成和网络表示的广义区域市场模型。本文对澳大利亚国家电力市场(NEM)的简化版进行了研究,并对结果进行了讨论。
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