Predicting Priority Time Patrol using Triple Exponential Smoothing and AHP

Abstract

Prediction is a systematic process of determining what will happen in the future based on current historical data, which reduces inaccuracies. The purpose of this study is to predict the number of crimes in the future so that it can be used as a basis for decision support to determine time priorities for the police to carry out patrol duties. Researchers use Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as one of the methods used to make decision support and Triple Exponential Smoothing as a method used to predict the number of crimes. The study's results used the Triple Exponential Smoothing method with a vulnerable time when the crime occurred at dawn, afternoon, evening, and night with an average accuracy of 63.60%. In the AHP method, the pairwise comparison assessment for each hierarchy consistently gives a CR value of less than 0.1. Thus, the priority of patrol time generated by the two methods is acceptable.