Forecasting Pre-COVID Deaths in the Elderly by ‘Cold + Dark + Dry’ Weather

Abstract

This on-going study analyses pre-COVID deaths in Ontario Canada over 10 years and finds a clear association between deaths in the elderly with preceding weather variables in downtown Toronto. Deaths in the younger groups are less dependent on weather. Death rates are shown to depend on temperature, solar irradiance (sunlight) and relative humidity, with highest deaths occurring when preceding weeks were coldest, darkest, and driest. Confirmed cases of Influenzas A and B correlate with the death spikes in winter and with the secondary ‘shoulder’ spikes in spring. Secondary spikes in the fall are not related to influenza but presumably to other illnesses. These results suggest that the simple combination of sunlight, temperature, and absolute humidity can forewarn when death will be more likely and when counter-balancing steps might be taken in elder care facilities and the general population.