AMSAA maturity projection model

Abstract

The AMSAA parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) projection model allows the utilization of data generated over a test period [0,T] that may include several system configurations to obtain projections of future system reliability. In this paper, the authors present a PEB reliability projection method. In general, the term "projection" refers to a reliability assessment that uses a combination of test data and engineering judgement. Engineering judgement, along with any pertinent system or lower level testing, is used to assess the effectiveness of fixes. Fix effectiveness factors are applied only to those fixes that have been implemented or that are scheduled for incorporation into the configuration whose reliability is being projected. Management frequently desires projecting the reliability of the next system configuration or at a future milestone. The projection methodology presented in this paper can be used to address these situations.