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Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings最新文献

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Translating user diagnostics, reliability, and maintainability needs into specifications 将用户诊断、可靠性和可维护性需求转换为规范
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513231
F. Born, N.H. Criscimagna
Military users state the requirements for a new system in the Operational Requirements Document. They do so using the measures with which they manage the systems. These measures are not suitable for specifying the system's needed performance to a contractor. A translation, therefore, from user needs to specifications is needed. A methodology for this translation process for reliability, maintainability, and diagnostics needs is being developed and incorporated in a PC software tool. The tool will provide a disciplined, auditable method for performing the needs to specification translation.
军事用户在作战需求文件中说明新系统的需求。他们使用管理系统的方法来做到这一点。这些措施不适用于向承包商指定系统所需的性能。因此,需要将用户需求转换为规范。一种用于可靠性、可维护性和诊断需求的翻译过程的方法正在开发中,并被纳入PC软件工具。该工具将提供一个规范的、可审计的方法来执行需求到规范的转换。
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引用次数: 3
Combining imperfect coverage with digraph models 将不完全覆盖与有向图模型相结合
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513277
S. A. Doyle, J. Dugan, M. Boyd
We present a prototype implementation of a program to compute the unreliability of a system based on the digraph model of the system and coverage models for individual components. The C program we have written takes as input a system description describing failure modes in terms of a digraph model. This, as well as coverage probability information are used to produce a quantitative unreliability result. The problem being addressed is an important one. The goal is not only to improve the validity of the model being used, but to keep the framework simple, usable and adaptable. A more complete model allows for more realistic analysis. It is essential that life critical systems meet their required level of accuracy. Excluding any of the factors discussed here could result in serious miscalculations. One benefit of performing a quantitative analysis is the digraph models could be used to help analyze the dependability of the system being designed so as to facilitate tradeoff analysis when alternative designs are considered. Another attractive feature of the proposed approach is that it could be used in conjunction with pre-existing tools to enhance the diagnosis process that already exists without significantly affecting the time, money or effort involved. Within the concept of fault diagnosis, a quantitative analysis could allow a prioritization of lists of possible failure causes based on the probabilities associated with those events. In other words, the paths of the digraphs would be weighted so that most likely causes could be considered first.
我们提出了一个基于系统的有向图模型和单个组件的覆盖模型来计算系统不可靠性的程序的原型实现。我们编写的C程序以有向图模型的形式将描述故障模式的系统描述作为输入。这一点,以及覆盖概率信息被用来产生定量的不可靠性结果。正在处理的问题是一个重要的问题。目标不仅是提高所使用模型的有效性,而且要保持框架的简单、可用和适应性。一个更完整的模型可以进行更现实的分析。至关重要的是,生命关键系统满足其所需的精度水平。排除这里讨论的任何因素都可能导致严重的误判。执行定量分析的一个好处是,可以使用有向图模型来帮助分析正在设计的系统的可靠性,以便在考虑备选设计时促进权衡分析。该方法的另一个吸引人的特点是,它可以与已有的工具结合使用,以增强现有的诊断过程,而不会显著影响所涉及的时间、金钱或精力。在故障诊断的概念中,定量分析可以根据与这些事件相关的概率对可能的故障原因列表进行优先级排序。换句话说,将对有向图的路径进行加权,以便首先考虑最可能的原因。
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引用次数: 1
Enhancing supportability through life-cycle definitions 通过生命周期定义增强可支持性
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513276
D. Followell
Design specifications for functional systems are typically derived from the extreme environmental conditions expected during their operational use. This practice can result in a system which is extremely over designed, and therefore excessively heavy, expensive and complex. A prime example is the military's requirement for cold temperature operations of -55 C, a temperature that has not been reached in twenty years. Equally likely, a system design based on operational environments may be inadequately designed since nonoperational environments, such as handling, transportation, storage, and maintenance may have been ignored. If these nonoperational environments prove to drive the durability of the system, failures will occur and the system's reliability will suffer, resulting in increased life cycle costs and reduced operational readiness. The United States Air Force has recognized this shortcoming in the design process and requires newly developed systems to be designed to endure the environments imposed by the entire life cycle profile-from manufacturing through deployment, operational usage and maintenance. Unfortunately, the procedures and data used to develop these life cycle profiles are not consistent from one development to the next. The Mission Environmental Requirements Integration Technology Program (MERIT) was created to provide a solution to this problem. This technology will result in decreased environmental definition costs, an optimum design for a given application, reduced cycle times and decreased life cycle warranty and maintenance costs.
功能系统的设计规范通常来自其操作使用期间预期的极端环境条件。这种做法可能导致系统设计过度,从而导致系统过于沉重、昂贵和复杂。一个典型的例子是军方对零下55摄氏度的低温操作的要求,这是20年来从未达到的温度。同样有可能的是,基于操作环境的系统设计可能没有得到充分的设计,因为非操作环境,例如处理、运输、存储和维护可能被忽略了。如果这些非操作环境被证明驱动了系统的耐久性,就会发生故障,系统的可靠性将受到影响,从而导致生命周期成本的增加和操作准备程度的降低。美国空军已经认识到设计过程中的这一缺陷,并要求新开发的系统能够承受整个生命周期(从制造到部署、操作使用和维护)所施加的环境。不幸的是,用于开发这些生命周期概要的过程和数据在每次开发中并不一致。任务环境要求集成技术项目(MERIT)的创建就是为了解决这个问题。该技术将降低环境定义成本,为给定应用提供最佳设计,缩短周期时间,降低生命周期保修和维护成本。
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引用次数: 9
Assessing mixture-model goodness-of-fit with an application to automobile warranty data 混合模型拟合优度评估及其在汽车保修数据中的应用
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513272
K. Majeske, G. Herrin
Changing market conditions and improved manufacturing quality are reflected in recent extensions of automobile warranty coverage from 12 month/12,000 miles to 5 years/50,000 miles and better. The reliability engineer's challenge to predict future warranty claims over a longer lifetime becomes even more difficult as the number of possible causal factors evolve from the "vital few" associated with early Pareto problem solving, to more diverse external contributing factors. Using initial vehicle warranty claim data to predict future warranty claims becomes even more difficult as automobile design and the assembly process continuously evolve via engineering changes throughout the product life cycle. This paper demonstrates graphical techniques, hazard analysis, and likelihood ratio tests for testing goodness-of-fit, the hypothesis of predictive validity for the proposed models. This work shows that automobile warranty data appear more appropriately predicted as Weibull/uniform and Poisson/binomial mixtures than individual Weibull and Poisson processes. Changes in the way automobile manufacturers store and view warranty data are necessary to implement the types of models in this work and will allow linking to engineering and manufacturing data to evaluate the effectiveness of ongoing product and process design changes.
不断变化的市场条件和不断提高的制造质量反映在最近将汽车保修范围从12个月/12,000英里延长到5年/50,000英里甚至更高。随着可能的因果因素从早期解决帕累托问题的“少数关键因素”演变为更多样化的外部影响因素,可靠性工程师预测未来更长的生命周期内的保修索赔的挑战变得更加困难。随着汽车设计和装配过程在整个产品生命周期中通过工程变化不断发展,使用最初的车辆保修索赔数据来预测未来的保修索赔变得更加困难。本文演示了图形技术、风险分析和似然比检验,以检验拟合优度,即所提出模型的预测有效性假设。这项工作表明,与单独的威布尔和泊松过程相比,汽车保修数据似乎更适合预测为威布尔/均匀和泊松/二项混合。汽车制造商存储和查看保修数据的方式的改变对于实现本工作中的模型类型是必要的,并且将允许链接到工程和制造数据,以评估正在进行的产品和工艺设计更改的有效性。
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引用次数: 16
Databases for reliability and probabilistic risk assessment 可靠性和概率风险评估数据库
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513265
M. Thaggard
NASA Headquarters is developing a risk-assessment-reliability-availability-maintainability (RRAMS) database architecture that includes two types of database files. The first file type incorporates historical information derived from test range launch performance records. The second type includes an assimilation of reliability calculations and statistical uncertainties determined after the launch performance reports were evaluated.
NASA总部正在开发一种风险评估-可靠性-可用性-可维护性(RRAMS)数据库架构,其中包括两种类型的数据库文件。第一种文件类型包含了来自试验场发射性能记录的历史信息。第二类包括在评估发射性能报告后确定的可靠性计算和统计不确定性的同化。
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引用次数: 2
Operational availability modeling for risk and impact analysis 用于风险和影响分析的操作可用性建模
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513274
D. Hurst
Availability is a system performance parameter which provides insight into the probability that an item or system will be available to be committed to a specified requirement. Depending on the application, availability can be defined to include reliability, maintainability and logistic support information. For fleet management purposes, the ability to quantify availability in terms of all of its contributing elements is essential. This paper provides a discussion on a steady state operational availability model which can be used to assist the Canadian Air Force in its aircraft fleet management requirements. The availability model embodies scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and allows for impact analysis using in-service maintenance data. The model is sensitive to fleet size, aircraft flying rate, frequency of downing events, aircraft maintainability, scheduled inspection frequency and scheduled inspection duration. The predictive capability of this availability model is providing the Canadian Air Force with a more sophisticated maintenance analysis decision support capability. In order for this paper to be available for general distribution, it must be unclassified. As a result, the case studies presented do not reveal the actual operational availability of any Canadian Air Force fleet. However, the level of detail provided is more than adequate to illustrate the case studies and give insight into applications of the availability model.
可用性是一个系统性能参数,它提供了对项目或系统可用于提交特定需求的可能性的洞察。根据应用程序的不同,可用性可以定义为包括可靠性、可维护性和后勤支持信息。出于车队管理的目的,根据其所有贡献元素量化可用性的能力是必不可少的。本文讨论了一种可用于协助加拿大空军机队管理需求的稳态作战可用性模型。可用性模型包含计划维护和非计划维护,并允许使用在役维护数据进行影响分析。该模型对机队规模、飞机飞行速率、击落事件频率、飞机可维护性、计划检查频率和计划检查时间敏感。这种可用性模型的预测能力为加拿大空军提供了更复杂的维护分析决策支持能力。为了使这篇论文能够广泛分发,它必须是非机密的。因此,所提出的案例研究并没有揭示任何加拿大空军机队的实际作战能力。然而,所提供的详细程度足以说明案例研究并深入了解可用性模型的应用程序。
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引用次数: 6
Vibration fatigue of surface mount technology (SMT) solder joints 表面贴装技术(SMT)焊点的振动疲劳
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513218
S. Liguore, D. Followell
Recent trends in reliability analysis of electronics has involved developing structural integrity models for predicting the failure free operating lifetime under vibratory and thermal environmental exposure. This paper describes a test program which was performed to obtain structural fatigue data for SMT solder joints exposed to a random vibration environment. A total of eight printed circuit board specimens with nine surface mounted components were fabricated and tested. Vibration time to failure data for individual solder joints of the SMT components were recorded. These data became the basis for understanding the physics of "why and how" SMT solder joints fail under vibration loading. Using procedures similar to those developed for aerospace structures, a fatigue model was developed that is based on the physics of the problem.
电子产品可靠性分析的最新趋势包括开发结构完整性模型,以预测振动和热环境下的无故障工作寿命。本文介绍了SMT焊点在随机振动环境下的结构疲劳测试程序。共制作了8个印刷电路板样品,其中包含9个表面贴装元件。记录SMT组件各焊点的振动失效时间数据。这些数据成为理解SMT焊点在振动载荷下失效的“原因和方式”的物理基础。采用类似于航空航天结构开发的程序,建立了一个基于问题物理性质的疲劳模型。
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引用次数: 37
Time-dependent logic for goal-oriented dynamic-system analysis 面向目标的动态系统分析的时变逻辑
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513256
M. L. Roush, Xiaozhong Wang
The problem to be addressed in this paper is the need for adequate methodologies to use in analyzing systems which are inherently dynamic and require analysis that is explicitly time dependent. This paper highlights an error that can arise in analyzing accident scenarios when time dependence is ignored. A simple straight-forward solution is provided without the necessity of utilizing more powerful (and hence more complex) dynamic event tree techniques. This possible solution is a straightforward extension of the current fault-tree/event-tree approach by incorporating a time-dependent algebraic formalism into fault-tree/event-tree analysis. A goal tree provides a success-oriented logic structure to efficiently implement the time-dependent logic for dynamic system analysis.
本文要解决的问题是需要适当的方法来分析本质上动态的系统,并且需要明确地依赖于时间的分析。本文强调了在分析事故情景时忽略时间依赖性可能产生的错误。提供了一个简单直接的解决方案,而无需使用更强大(因此也更复杂)的动态事件树技术。这种可能的解决方案是当前故障树/事件树方法的直接扩展,通过将时间相关的代数形式化纳入故障树/事件树分析。目标树提供了一个面向成功的逻辑结构,有效地实现了动态系统分析的时变逻辑。
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引用次数: 0
A modified bathtub curve with latent failures 带有潜在故障的修正浴盆曲线
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513249
J. English, Li Yan, T. L. Landers
Burn-in and stress screening are becoming increasingly popular in the commercial electronics industry as customers become increasingly sensitive to failures occurring in the useful life of a product or system. For example, thermal stress screening (TSS) is an assembly-level electronics manufacturing process that evolved from the burn-in processes used in NASA and DoD programs. While burn-in subjects the product to expected field extremes to expose infant mortalities (latent failures), TSS briefly exposes a product to fast temperature rate-of-change and out-of-spec temperatures to trigger failures that would otherwise occur during the useful life of the product. In support of this known failure behavior, the classical bathtub curve should be modified to aid in the economic modeling of various screen types. We have conducted extensive modeling efforts that have resulted in a systematic approach to explicitly modeling the latent failures in the bathtub curve. In this paper, we describe the efforts that have been dedicated to model the latent failures known to exist in many products and systems. The resulting failure distribution is a truncated, mixed Weibull distribution. This model is proving to be an effective and relatively simple means to model the complex nature of failures of a system. With this increased flexibility, we can measure the impact of stress screens in varying conditions and ultimately design optimal screens.
随着客户对产品或系统使用寿命内发生的故障越来越敏感,老化和应力筛选在商业电子工业中变得越来越流行。例如,热应力筛选(TSS)是一种组装级电子制造工艺,由NASA和DoD项目中使用的老化工艺演变而来。老化会使产品处于预期的极端环境中,从而导致婴儿死亡(潜在故障),而TSS会使产品短暂地暴露于快速的温度变化率和超出规格的温度下,从而触发在产品使用寿命期间可能发生的故障。为了支持这种已知的破坏行为,经典的浴缸曲线应该被修改,以帮助各种筛网类型的经济建模。我们进行了大量的建模工作,形成了一个系统的方法来明确地对浴盆曲线中的潜在故障进行建模。在本文中,我们描述了致力于对许多产品和系统中已知存在的潜在故障进行建模的努力。得到的失效分布是一个截断的混合威布尔分布。该模型被证明是一种有效且相对简单的方法来模拟系统故障的复杂性质。随着灵活性的提高,我们可以测量不同条件下应力筛管的影响,并最终设计出最佳筛管。
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引用次数: 9
Using complexity-tracking in software development 在软件开发中使用复杂性跟踪
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513280
David I. Heimann
CATS (Complexity Analysis and Tracking System) is a complexity-tracking system which uses the McCabe complexity analysis tool to construct and maintain an ongoing database of structural complexity values for a software system as it proceeds through its development and testing. Building on previous work which indicated a correlation between structural complexity and defect corrections, CATS allows for a tighter focus of code review efforts such as walkthroughs and inspections and aids in the design of regression, unit, and system tests. CATS has been implemented into the development and testing process for an operation-system software component denoted here as System A. The process for CATS implementation at System A involves two ongoing groups, the BIT (Build, Inspect, and Test) team and the development reams. The BIT team builds the source files, runs CATS, identifies modules for special attention in review and testing, uses the complexity information to design and execute test suites, and reports results to the development teams through a notes-files conference. The development teams use the information in their code efforts, and report their responses and experiences through replies in the notes-file. This creates a body of data, experience, and lessons-learned for use in further development. A CATS analysis has also been carried out for an operating-system facility in VMS (denoted as Facility B).
CATS(复杂性分析和跟踪系统)是一个复杂性跟踪系统,它使用McCabe复杂性分析工具在软件系统的开发和测试过程中构建和维护一个持续的结构复杂性值数据库。建立在先前的表明结构复杂性和缺陷纠正之间的相关性的工作之上,CATS允许更紧密地关注代码审查工作,例如在回归、单元和系统测试的设计中帮助进行走查和检查。CATS已经被实现到操作系统软件组件的开发和测试过程中,在这里表示为系统A。在系统A中实现CATS的过程涉及两个正在进行的小组,BIT(构建、检查和测试)小组和开发小组。BIT团队构建源文件,运行CATS,确定在审查和测试中需要特别注意的模块,使用复杂性信息来设计和执行测试套件,并通过注释文件会议向开发团队报告结果。开发团队在他们的代码工作中使用这些信息,并通过注释文件中的回复报告他们的响应和经验。这将创建一个数据、经验和教训的主体,以供进一步开发使用。还对VMS中的操作系统设施(表示为设施B)进行了CATS分析。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings
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