Reliability index forecast by fuzzy principle

S. Katithummarugs, A. Apiwattananon, P. Labchareonwong, N. Sirisophonwattana, N. Teera-achariyakul, D. Rerkpreedapong
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This paper proposes the reliability index forecast of the feeders in the central area of Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA), during 2002 – 2009. The failure rate distribution of each protective device (Breaker, Recloser and Fuse) is assumed by Weibull distribution. In addition, fuzzy set is introduced to describe the uncertainty of those failure rates by combining each failure rate of protective devices which effect to a load point. Finally, the incoming year System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) of each feeder can be calculated by fuzzy principle base on the evaluated failure rates and number of customers at that load point.
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用模糊原理预测可靠性指标
本文提出了2002 ~ 2009年省电力局中部地区馈线可靠性指标预测。各保护装置(断路器、合闸和保险丝)的故障率分布采用威布尔分布。此外,将影响某一负载点的各个保护装置的故障率结合起来,引入模糊集来描述故障率的不确定性。最后,根据评估的故障率和该负荷点的用户数量,利用模糊原理计算出各馈线来年的系统平均中断频率指数(SAIFI)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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