Is This Time Different?

Abstract

Chapter 1 introduces the debate over whether “this time is different”—whether contemporary innovations in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics are more likely than past rounds of technological innovations to yield net job destruction—and the parallel debate over whether we should welcome or worry about that future. It begins with a tour of some of the innovations that are allowing algorithms and robots to replace human workers at a range of tasks, and explains why the recent COVID-19 crisis is accelerating automation along several vectors. The chapter previews the book’s overall claims that a future of less work is foreseeable, even likely, if not inevitable; that it holds both perils and promise for ordinary workers and the society as a whole; and that it should be met with policy responses that can mitigate the losses and fairly distribute the large potential gains from a more automated economy.