Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0003
Cynthia Estlund
Chapter 3 fills in some institutional features of the landscape of work that shape and illuminate managerial decisions about automation: the evolving law of labor and employment and the rise of “fissuring,” or outsourcing of labor needs to outside contractors. It argues that many of the mandatory legal rights, protections, and benefits that workers have won over the past century raise labor costs and tilt firms’ calculus toward both fissuring and automation; and that the prevailing legal responses to fissuring tend to strengthen the business case for automation. In short, the growing availability of automation—which offers firms a more complete exit from the costs, risks, and hassles of employing humans—confounds old and new legal strategies for improving the lives of ordinary workers.
{"title":"What’s Law Got to Do with It?","authors":"Cynthia Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 3 fills in some institutional features of the landscape of work that shape and illuminate managerial decisions about automation: the evolving law of labor and employment and the rise of “fissuring,” or outsourcing of labor needs to outside contractors. It argues that many of the mandatory legal rights, protections, and benefits that workers have won over the past century raise labor costs and tilt firms’ calculus toward both fissuring and automation; and that the prevailing legal responses to fissuring tend to strengthen the business case for automation. In short, the growing availability of automation—which offers firms a more complete exit from the costs, risks, and hassles of employing humans—confounds old and new legal strategies for improving the lives of ordinary workers.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"153 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120948896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0008
C. Estlund
Chapter 8 briefly takes up two questions about funding the proposals advanced in Chapters 6 and 7: how to structure the funding of new and existing benefits—specifically, those that could but need not be funded through employer payrolls—and how to raise whatever public revenues are needed. The problem is this: Payroll-based funding tends to unnecessarily speed job losses and affords limited latitude for redistribution; but it has political advantages as seen with Social Security. Payroll-based benefits are seen by beneficiaries and voters as earned and owned, and they require little or no public appropriations. The chapter proposes hybrid funding mechanisms, including new uses for “wage subsidies,” that attempt to finesse this dilemma. And it suggests some more and less familiar ways of taxing the biggest winners in a more automated economy to support programs in support of those being left behind.
{"title":"Footing the Bill","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 8 briefly takes up two questions about funding the proposals advanced in Chapters 6 and 7: how to structure the funding of new and existing benefits—specifically, those that could but need not be funded through employer payrolls—and how to raise whatever public revenues are needed. The problem is this: Payroll-based funding tends to unnecessarily speed job losses and affords limited latitude for redistribution; but it has political advantages as seen with Social Security. Payroll-based benefits are seen by beneficiaries and voters as earned and owned, and they require little or no public appropriations. The chapter proposes hybrid funding mechanisms, including new uses for “wage subsidies,” that attempt to finesse this dilemma. And it suggests some more and less familiar ways of taxing the biggest winners in a more automated economy to support programs in support of those being left behind.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"194 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126032403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0001
C. Estlund
Chapter 1 introduces the debate over whether “this time is different”—whether contemporary innovations in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics are more likely than past rounds of technological innovations to yield net job destruction—and the parallel debate over whether we should welcome or worry about that future. It begins with a tour of some of the innovations that are allowing algorithms and robots to replace human workers at a range of tasks, and explains why the recent COVID-19 crisis is accelerating automation along several vectors. The chapter previews the book’s overall claims that a future of less work is foreseeable, even likely, if not inevitable; that it holds both perils and promise for ordinary workers and the society as a whole; and that it should be met with policy responses that can mitigate the losses and fairly distribute the large potential gains from a more automated economy.
{"title":"Is This Time Different?","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 1 introduces the debate over whether “this time is different”—whether contemporary innovations in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics are more likely than past rounds of technological innovations to yield net job destruction—and the parallel debate over whether we should welcome or worry about that future. It begins with a tour of some of the innovations that are allowing algorithms and robots to replace human workers at a range of tasks, and explains why the recent COVID-19 crisis is accelerating automation along several vectors. The chapter previews the book’s overall claims that a future of less work is foreseeable, even likely, if not inevitable; that it holds both perils and promise for ordinary workers and the society as a whole; and that it should be met with policy responses that can mitigate the losses and fairly distribute the large potential gains from a more automated economy.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127642276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0002
C. Estlund
Chapter 2 digs more deeply into the outlook for job destruction and job creation, and adds some theory and data to Chapter 1’s anecdotes about how machines can replace human workers. It reports an emerging consensus among leading scholars that automation is already contributing to the polarization, or hollowing out, of the labor market by destroying more middle-skill jobs than it is creating. And it reports on the more concerning prediction—still a minority view though more than plausible—that machines are destined to produce overall net job losses as they continually whittle away at humans’ comparative advantages. The chapter arrives at a working premise for the rest of the book that straddles those two forecasts: We are facing a future of less work—at least less work for those with ordinary human skills and without advanced education, and perhaps less work overall. While that straddle might seem untenable, either forecast is similarly bleak for most workers—if we do not respond constructively; and when it comes to the shape of a constructive response, both forecasts point largely in the same direction.
{"title":"Forecasting the Impact of Automation on Jobs","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 2 digs more deeply into the outlook for job destruction and job creation, and adds some theory and data to Chapter 1’s anecdotes about how machines can replace human workers. It reports an emerging consensus among leading scholars that automation is already contributing to the polarization, or hollowing out, of the labor market by destroying more middle-skill jobs than it is creating. And it reports on the more concerning prediction—still a minority view though more than plausible—that machines are destined to produce overall net job losses as they continually whittle away at humans’ comparative advantages. The chapter arrives at a working premise for the rest of the book that straddles those two forecasts: We are facing a future of less work—at least less work for those with ordinary human skills and without advanced education, and perhaps less work overall. While that straddle might seem untenable, either forecast is similarly bleak for most workers—if we do not respond constructively; and when it comes to the shape of a constructive response, both forecasts point largely in the same direction.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132158190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0009
C. Estlund
The Conclusion turns to the daunting political challenges that already face big redistributive programs like those advanced here, and that will be refracted through the prism of automation. Popular anxiety about job losses might even exacerbate the divisive ethnonationalist politics that have taken hold in much of the United States (and beyond). The chapter argues for the importance of cultivating a stronger narrative of cross-racial solidarity and shared interests, and for the distinctive capacity of labor unions, grounded as they are in the fertile medium of shared work, to credibly propagate that narrative. And it argues that the strategy proposed here—centered around securing decent work (but less of it) for all—offers a broadly appealing program around which to organize diverse workers. The chapter, and the book, concludes with reflections on the future of capitalism, and the varieties of capitalism, in a future of less work.
{"title":"The Politics of Hope and Fear in a Future of Less Work","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0009","url":null,"abstract":"The Conclusion turns to the daunting political challenges that already face big redistributive programs like those advanced here, and that will be refracted through the prism of automation. Popular anxiety about job losses might even exacerbate the divisive ethnonationalist politics that have taken hold in much of the United States (and beyond). The chapter argues for the importance of cultivating a stronger narrative of cross-racial solidarity and shared interests, and for the distinctive capacity of labor unions, grounded as they are in the fertile medium of shared work, to credibly propagate that narrative. And it argues that the strategy proposed here—centered around securing decent work (but less of it) for all—offers a broadly appealing program around which to organize diverse workers. The chapter, and the book, concludes with reflections on the future of capitalism, and the varieties of capitalism, in a future of less work.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115711905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0006
C. Estlund
Chapters 6 begins to lay out the components of a three-dimensional strategy that aims for a more balanced distribution of work and free time, as well as adequate incomes, across the society. This chapter focuses on creating and conserving decent jobs. It argues for creating public jobs largely as a byproduct of creating public goods and serving public needs. And it argues for conserving decent private sector jobs by “unburdening employment,” or shifting the cost of some worker entitlements off the platform of employment and onto a broader foundation. Both would secure a range of benefits beyond their tendency to create and conserve jobs.
{"title":"Creating and Conserving Work","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapters 6 begins to lay out the components of a three-dimensional strategy that aims for a more balanced distribution of work and free time, as well as adequate incomes, across the society. This chapter focuses on creating and conserving decent jobs. It argues for creating public jobs largely as a byproduct of creating public goods and serving public needs. And it argues for conserving decent private sector jobs by “unburdening employment,” or shifting the cost of some worker entitlements off the platform of employment and onto a broader foundation. Both would secure a range of benefits beyond their tendency to create and conserve jobs.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129034731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0004
C. Estlund
Chapter 4 shifts from assessing the challenge of automation to reflecting on what we should be aiming for in a foreseeable future of less work. It argues that we should be looking to ensure a wide distribution of three goods: adequate income, more free time, and decent work (though less of it). It is the last of these—the value of work—that is most contested, but that most animates this book. Work has profound psychic, social, and political benefits even apart from the goods and services it produces and the income it yields. In particular, shared work can draw people together across social divisions that divide them in their non-work lives. We should aim to maintain decent work at the center of most people’s lives and livelihoods even in a future with less of it.
{"title":"Three Goals for a Future of Less Work","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 4 shifts from assessing the challenge of automation to reflecting on what we should be aiming for in a foreseeable future of less work. It argues that we should be looking to ensure a wide distribution of three goods: adequate income, more free time, and decent work (though less of it). It is the last of these—the value of work—that is most contested, but that most animates this book. Work has profound psychic, social, and political benefits even apart from the goods and services it produces and the income it yields. In particular, shared work can draw people together across social divisions that divide them in their non-work lives. We should aim to maintain decent work at the center of most people’s lives and livelihoods even in a future with less of it.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115707361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0005
C. Estlund
Chapter 5 turns from goals to means. It takes up Three Big Ideas that some tout as all-purpose solutions for a future of less work: UBI, a federal job guarantee (JG), or a shorter work week. Each has major virtues, but each faces daunting practical and political hurdles. More importantly, each of the Three Big Ideas fails on one of the three dimensions of a good livelihood that we should be aiming for: UBI falls short on ensuring a wide distribution of decent work; existing JG proposals fail to spread the benefits of more free time; and a shorter work week, standing alone, would fail to ensure adequate incomes. What we need is a multifaceted strategy that creates, conserves, and spreads work while supporting incomes of those who are otherwise unlikely to capture the dividends of a more automated economy.
{"title":"Three Big Ideas (and Some Big Concerns)","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 5 turns from goals to means. It takes up Three Big Ideas that some tout as all-purpose solutions for a future of less work: UBI, a federal job guarantee (JG), or a shorter work week. Each has major virtues, but each faces daunting practical and political hurdles. More importantly, each of the Three Big Ideas fails on one of the three dimensions of a good livelihood that we should be aiming for: UBI falls short on ensuring a wide distribution of decent work; existing JG proposals fail to spread the benefits of more free time; and a shorter work week, standing alone, would fail to ensure adequate incomes. What we need is a multifaceted strategy that creates, conserves, and spreads work while supporting incomes of those who are otherwise unlikely to capture the dividends of a more automated economy.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133217995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-28DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0007
C. Estlund
Chapter 7 focuses chiefly on the project of work spreading—that is, shifting work from those with too much of it toward those with too little of it. The overall aim is to spread the benefits of both work and free time through a more equitable and healthy work-life balance across the society. Some work spreading can be accomplished by supporting workers’ own choices to work less; other work-spreading techniques will be more challenging and controversial, like those that take aim at the long-hours culture of many high-end workplaces. Work spreading needs to be coupled with income-support measures, which are briefly addressed here. But work spreading is the linchpin of mitigating the losses (in work and income) and spreading the gains (in free time) of a future in which machines gradually supplant human labor in a growing range of tasks.
{"title":"Spreading Work and Supporting Incomes","authors":"C. Estlund","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197566107.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Chapter 7 focuses chiefly on the project of work spreading—that is, shifting work from those with too much of it toward those with too little of it. The overall aim is to spread the benefits of both work and free time through a more equitable and healthy work-life balance across the society. Some work spreading can be accomplished by supporting workers’ own choices to work less; other work-spreading techniques will be more challenging and controversial, like those that take aim at the long-hours culture of many high-end workplaces. Work spreading needs to be coupled with income-support measures, which are briefly addressed here. But work spreading is the linchpin of mitigating the losses (in work and income) and spreading the gains (in free time) of a future in which machines gradually supplant human labor in a growing range of tasks.","PeriodicalId":170642,"journal":{"name":"Automation Anxiety","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128305621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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