Dynamics of Exchange Rates and Oil Price: Adaptive Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

Multivariate generalizations of the modified and adaptive time series correlation coefficients are obtained using the example of the dependence of currency pairs quotations and Brent crude oil price. The analysis of the movement of exchange rates and oil price in the R software environment. A much more detailed data analysis than the classical theory suggestion is obtained. Based on the identified trends in the dynamics of these markets, short-term forecasting was carried out using ARIMA, TBATS models and neural networks.