Prediction of the demand for senior crews of Chinese sea-going vessels based on the combined forecasting method

Abstract

China's shipping industry is developing rapidly, but there is a shortage of senior crew. Based on the basic data of Chinese sea-going ships, a linear weighted combination forecasting model based on regression forecasting method, quadratic exponential smoothing method, and GM (1,1) gray forecasting method was established, using average absolute deviation and residual standard deviation as indicators to evaluate the fitting accuracy of each single prediction model and combined prediction model. Although the forecast of the demand for Chinese sea-going crews from 2020 to 2029 shows a slight downward trend, some actions must be taken immediately to train more senior crews to alleviate the increasingly prominent imbalance between supply and demand.