The role of sea ice in establishing the seasonal Arctic warming pattern

S. Sejas, P. Taylor
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Abstract

In response to a positive CO2 forcing, the seasonal Arctic warming pattern is characterized by an early winter maximum and a summer minimum. While robust, our fundamental understanding of the seasonal expression of Arctic surface warming remains incomplete. Our analysis explores the relationship between the seasonal cycle of surface heating rate changes and the seasonal structure of Arctic warming in modern climate models. Consistent across all models, we find that the background summer-to-winter surface cooling rate and winter-to-summer surface heating rate slows over sea ice regions in response to increased CO2. The slowing of the background summer-to-winter surface cooling rate leads to an early winter Arctic warming maximum, whereby regions and models with a greater slowing also produce a greater winter warming peak. By decomposing the contributions to the background seasonal heating rate change, we find that reductions in sea ice cover and thickness are primarily responsible for the changes. The winter warming peak results from the loss of sea ice cover, which transitions the Arctic surface from a lower thermal inertia surface (sea ice) to a higher thermal inertia surface (ice-free ocean) that slows the seasonal cooling rate. The seasonal cooling rate in autumn is further slowed by the thinning of sea ice, which allows for a greater conductance of heat from the ocean through the sea ice to the surface. These results offer an alternate perspective of the seasonality of Arctic warming, whereby the changing thermal inertia of the Arctic surface is an important aspect of the seasonality, complementary to other perspectives.
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海冰在建立北极季节性变暖模式中的作用
作为对CO2正强迫的响应,北极季节性变暖模式的特征是冬季早期最大值和夏季最小值。虽然我们对北极表面变暖的季节性表达的基本理解是强有力的,但仍然不完整。我们的分析探讨了现代气候模式中地表升温速率变化的季节周期与北极变暖的季节结构之间的关系。与所有模式一致的是,我们发现海冰区夏季到冬季的地表冷却速率和冬季到夏季的地表加热速率随着二氧化碳的增加而减慢。背景夏季到冬季地表冷却速率的减慢导致北极早冬变暖最大值,因此减慢较大的地区和模式也产生较大的冬季变暖峰值。通过分解对背景季节升温速率变化的贡献,我们发现海冰覆盖和厚度的减少是造成这种变化的主要原因。冬季变暖高峰是由海冰覆盖的减少造成的,海冰覆盖使北极表面从低热惯性表面(海冰)转变为高热惯性表面(无冰海洋),从而减缓了季节性冷却速率。由于海冰变薄,使得海洋通过海冰向地表传递的热量更大,秋季的季节性降温速度进一步减慢。这些结果提供了北极变暖季节性的另一种观点,即北极表面热惯性的变化是季节性的一个重要方面,与其他观点相辅相成。
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