RELIABILITY METHODS FOR ANALYZING COVID-19 PANDEMIC SPREADING BEHAVIOR, LOCKDOWN IMPACT AND INFECTIOUSNESS

Abstract

In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the globalized world. Restrictions on the public life and lockdowns of different characteristics define the life in many countries. This paper focuses on the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (01-28-2020 to 01-15-2021). As a transfer of methods used in reliability engineering for analyzing occurrence of infection, Weibull distribution models are used to evaluate the spreading behavior of COVID-19. Key issues of this study are the differences of spreading behavior in first and second pandemic phase and the various impacts of lockdown measures with different characteristics (hard, light). Therefore, the occurrence of infection in normed time periods with and without lockdown measures are analyzed in detail on the example of Germany representing the spreading behavior in Europe. Additional information in comparison to classical infection analyzes models like SIR model is generated by the application of Weibull distribution models with easy interpretable parameters and the dynamic development of COVID-19 is outlined. In a further step, the occurrence of infection of COVID-19 is put into the context of other common infectious diseases in Germany like Influenza or Norovirus to evaluate the infectiousness. Differences in spreading behavior of COVID-19 in comparison to these well-known infectious diseases are underlined for different pandemic phases.