Will People with High Assets Be More Pessimistic Towards the Economic Expectations?

Wang Zhengfen
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Abstract

The study of economic expectation is conducive to understand the potential unstable factors in China’s economic development. This paper discusses the impact of family assets on residents’ economic expectations from the perspective of social structure. Based on the social structure mechanism, this study adopts the variable of asset scale and the data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2011 to analyze the impact of asset scale on people’s economic expectations with the multi-layer logistic model. It is found that the higher the asset scale, the less optimistic the individual's economic expectation is. Besides, this impact is different in regions with different economic development levels. In economically relatively developed regions, asset scale has a significant negative effect on individual economic expectation, while in economically relatively underdeveloped regions, asset scale has no significant impact on individual economic expectation.
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高资产人群对经济预期更悲观吗?
研究经济预期有利于认识中国经济发展中潜在的不稳定因素。本文从社会结构的角度探讨家庭资产对居民经济预期的影响。本研究基于社会结构机制,采用资产规模变量和2011年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,运用多层logistic模型分析资产规模对人们经济预期的影响。研究发现,资产规模越高,个体的经济预期越不乐观。此外,经济发展水平不同的地区,这种影响也不同。在经济相对发达地区,资产规模对个体经济预期有显著的负向影响,而在经济相对不发达地区,资产规模对个体经济预期无显著影响。
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