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Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition (FMET 2021)最新文献

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The Impact of Land Property Right on China’s Rural-urban Migration 土地产权对中国城乡人口流动的影响
Yunshan Chen
China is undergoing a rural land system reform called Three Rights Division (TRD) which promotes the transformation of land management right and guarantees the security of land contract right. In this paper, we study the impacts of rural land system on migration under market (the ability to rent land) and government (land expropriation) mechanism. We employ the Probit model with robustness and endogenous checks to identify whether rent behavior and land insecurity have impacts on migration. Results show that the rent behavior has a positive impact on migration while land insecurity is negative, indicating that the reform of TRD promotes the probability to migrate both through market and government mechanism.
中国正在进行一场名为“三权分置”的农村土地制度改革,促进了土地经营权的流转,保障了土地承包权的安全。本文研究了市场(土地租用能力)和政府(土地征收)机制下农村土地制度对人口迁移的影响。我们采用具有鲁棒性和内生检查的Probit模型来确定租金行为和土地不安全是否对移民产生影响。结果表明,租金行为对人口迁移具有正向影响,而土地不安全因素对人口迁移具有负向影响,表明TRD改革通过市场和政府机制促进了人口迁移的概率。
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引用次数: 0
Will People with High Assets Be More Pessimistic Towards the Economic Expectations? 高资产人群对经济预期更悲观吗?
Wang Zhengfen
The study of economic expectation is conducive to understand the potential unstable factors in China’s economic development. This paper discusses the impact of family assets on residents’ economic expectations from the perspective of social structure. Based on the social structure mechanism, this study adopts the variable of asset scale and the data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2011 to analyze the impact of asset scale on people’s economic expectations with the multi-layer logistic model. It is found that the higher the asset scale, the less optimistic the individual's economic expectation is. Besides, this impact is different in regions with different economic development levels. In economically relatively developed regions, asset scale has a significant negative effect on individual economic expectation, while in economically relatively underdeveloped regions, asset scale has no significant impact on individual economic expectation.
研究经济预期有利于认识中国经济发展中潜在的不稳定因素。本文从社会结构的角度探讨家庭资产对居民经济预期的影响。本研究基于社会结构机制,采用资产规模变量和2011年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,运用多层logistic模型分析资产规模对人们经济预期的影响。研究发现,资产规模越高,个体的经济预期越不乐观。此外,经济发展水平不同的地区,这种影响也不同。在经济相对发达地区,资产规模对个体经济预期有显著的负向影响,而在经济相对不发达地区,资产规模对个体经济预期无显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Interpretation of Tax and Fee Support Policies for Film Industry Under the New Economic Environment 新经济环境下电影产业税费扶持政策解读
Dong Chunlong
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Genius for Investing Venture Capital 风险投资天才的评价
Shuqiao Zhang
Venture capital is crucial to startup businesses. This paper evaluates whether the startup business Genius is worth investing in by venture capitalists by employing PEST analysis and the POCD framework. The PEST analysis indicates that Genius can be more profitable in the future by examining the effects of political, economic, social, and technological factors on this company. The POCD framework finds that Genius can be profitable and more competitive in the future by providing perspectives from people, opportunities, and context. In general, this startup company is worth investing, as it will be profitable to the venture capitalists.
风险投资对创业至关重要。本文运用PEST分析和POCD框架对创业企业Genius是否值得风险投资家投资进行了评估。PEST分析表明,通过检查政治、经济、社会和技术因素对该公司的影响,Genius在未来可以更有利可图。POCD框架发现,通过提供来自人、机会和环境的观点,Genius可以在未来盈利并更具竞争力。总的来说,这个初创公司是值得投资的,因为它对风险资本家来说是有利可图的。
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引用次数: 0
Stock Prices and DCF valuation – Evidence from China 股票价格和DCF估值——来自中国的证据
Dongmei Chen, Xinru Ma, Runzhi Yan
The DCF model is a valuation model that we often use in our daily life. It is a common model for company valuation. Although the DCF model is the best choice of most companies' valuation models, there are still many inaccuracies in this valuation compared with the actual value. To verify the accuracy of the DCF model, this paper bases it on the real free cash flow, comparing and analysing the DCF valuation and stock prices. We found a) the results of the DCF model are not the same as the actual stock price at the end of 2005; b) the DCF valuation results are significantly higher than the actual stock price; c) the degree of deviation is different from various industries. The deviation may be caused by the reform of non-tradable shares in 2005.
DCF模型是我们日常生活中经常用到的一种估值模型。这是公司估值的常用模型。虽然DCF模型是大多数公司估值模型的最佳选择,但与实际价值相比,该估值仍存在许多不准确之处。为了验证DCF模型的准确性,本文以实际自由现金流为基础,对DCF估值与股票价格进行了比较分析。我们发现a) DCF模型的结果与2005年底的实际股价不一致;b) DCF估值结果显著高于实际股价;C)不同行业的偏差程度不同。这种偏差可能是由2005年股权分置改革引起的。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Emotional Interaction Problems and Countermeasures of Intelligent Products based on Consumer Behaviours Analysis 基于消费者行为分析的智能产品情感互动问题及对策研究
Ning Yang
Intelligent products should not only pay attention to their mechanical function, but also give users emotional and spiritual pleasure, have higher personification degree and improve the use experience. Intelligent products should interact with users naturally, perceive the different moods, environments and mood changes of users, find the core needs of users through intelligent technology, and provide suggestions and solutions quickly and accurately. By using the methods of literature research, investigation and comparative analysis, this paper discusses the emotional interaction design scheme of intelligent products based on consumer behavior. Through a questionnaire survey, focus group forum and analysis of collected data, the paper summarizes the influence of emotional interaction mode of intelligent products and the expression mode and voice tone of an intelligent voice assistant on user experience, purchase standard and product personification degree, and the satisfaction and hope improvement of consumers when using intelligent products. In addition, the personalized design of product shape, color and scene mode should be carried out according to the different user groups, so as to produce an intelligent product with higher user comfort and dependence, promote the development of intelligent products and improve user experience.
智能产品不仅要注重自身的机械功能,更要给用户情感和精神上的愉悦,具有更高的人格化程度,提高使用体验。智能产品应与用户自然互动,感知用户的不同情绪、环境和情绪变化,通过智能技术找到用户的核心需求,并快速、准确地提供建议和解决方案。本文采用文献研究法、调查法和对比分析法,探讨了基于消费者行为的智能产品情感交互设计方案。通过问卷调查、焦点小组论坛、收集数据分析,总结智能产品的情感互动模式、智能语音助手的表达方式和语音语调对用户体验、购买标准、产品人格化程度的影响,以及消费者在使用智能产品时的满意度和希望提升。此外,还应针对不同的用户群体进行产品造型、色彩、场景模式的个性化设计,从而生产出用户舒适度和依赖度更高的智能产品,促进智能产品的发展,提升用户体验。
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引用次数: 0
Do Firms Benefit From Corporate Alleviation? From the Perspective of Signaling Theory and Information Asymmetry 企业是否从企业扶贫中受益?从信号理论和信息不对称的角度
Tang Shirong
Precision is a national strategy for poverty alleviation, is a key step for a country towards achieving common prosperity and socialist modernization, in which not only is the work of the government and the masses, enterprises should also undertake the social responsibility. On the one hand, enterprises participate in the precision for poverty alleviation work to provide funds for poverty alleviation, and provide a way out of poverty for the masses. On the other hand, enterprises can also promote their positive image and obtain government resources through poverty alleviation. Therefore, this paper analyzes the sample data of non-financial listed companies participating in targeted poverty alleviation in the stock market from 2016 to 2020, and discusses the impact of enterprises' participation in poverty alleviation on company stock price fluctuations. The results show that: (1) the participation of enterprises in poverty alleviation will increase the fluctuation of stock price. (2) The participation of enterprises in poverty alleviation will reduce the prediction error of analysts. (3) Information disclosure by enterprises will increase the prediction error of analysts. Research proves that enterprises involved in poverty reduction to the enterprise itself to influence cannot be determined, so the enterprise should combine their own actual situation to decide whether to participate in poverty alleviation, but involved in poverty reduction can reduce analysts forecast error, is helpful for investors to make the right investment decisions, but should be alert to the enterprise of incomplete information disclosure make the analysts' forecast error to the growths.
精准扶贫是国家战略,是一个国家实现共同富裕和社会主义现代化的关键一步,其中不仅是政府和群众的工作,企业也应该承担社会责任。一方面,企业参与精准扶贫工作,为扶贫提供资金,为群众提供脱贫之路。另一方面,企业也可以通过扶贫提升企业的正面形象,获取政府资源。因此,本文对2016 - 2020年股票市场非金融类上市公司参与精准扶贫的样本数据进行分析,探讨企业参与精准扶贫对公司股价波动的影响。研究结果表明:(1)企业参与扶贫会加大股价波动。(2)企业参与扶贫会降低分析师的预测误差。(3)企业的信息披露会增加分析师的预测误差。研究证明,企业参与扶贫对企业自身的影响是无法确定的,因此企业应结合自身的实际情况来决定是否参与扶贫,而参与扶贫可以减少分析师的预测误差,有利于投资者做出正确的投资决策,但应警惕企业信息披露的不完全使分析师的预测误差对增长产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Conduction Effect of China’s Corn Futures Price—Analysis Based on International Market Factors 中国玉米期货价格传导效应研究——基于国际市场因素的分析
Wang Zhiyi
With the increasing correlation between China's corn futures and the international market, corn futures price fluctuation is closely related to the international market factors. By constructing VAR model, this paper focuses on the influence of four international trade and financial market factors -international corn futures price, international energy price, US dollar exchange rate and corn import volume. The results of Granger causality analysis show that international energy price, US dollar exchange rate and corn import volume are the Granger reasons for the fluctuation of domestic corn futures. The impulse response analysis showed that the initial impact of the four factors was large, and then the response decreased and gradually approached the level before the impact. The results of variance decomposition analysis showed that the import volume of corn had the strongest impact on the domestic corn futures price, followed by the international energy price and the exchange rate of US dollar, while international corn futures price had the weakest impact.
随着中国玉米期货与国际市场的关联度越来越高,玉米期货价格波动与国际市场因素密切相关。本文通过构建VAR模型,重点研究国际玉米期货价格、国际能源价格、美元汇率和玉米进口量四个国际贸易和金融市场因素的影响。格兰杰因果分析结果表明,国际能源价格、美元汇率和玉米进口量是国内玉米期货波动的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析表明,4个因素的初始影响较大,随后响应减小,逐渐接近影响前的水平。方差分解分析结果显示,玉米进口量对国内玉米期货价格的影响最大,其次是国际能源价格和美元汇率,而国际玉米期货价格的影响最弱。
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引用次数: 0
Analyze the Relationship Between CO2 Emissions and GDP from the Global Perspective 从全球视角分析二氧化碳排放与GDP的关系
Zhi-xiong Huang
Over the centuries, the effect of CO2 emissions has attracted attention both at the national and international levels. The rapid economic growth in past years causes the increase of CO2 emission, being an essential factor that increases global warming. However, what is the relationship between CO2 emission and GDP growth in the long run? Is it true that the relationship is always positive? In this paper, CO2 emission data and GDP data were collected from the World Bank database and analyzed the relationship between CO2 emission and GDP growth from a global perspective with a regression method. Finally, CO2 has a negative relationship with GDP based on data recorded in the past 50 years.
几个世纪以来,二氧化碳排放的影响已经引起了国家和国际层面的关注。近年来经济的快速增长导致二氧化碳排放量的增加,是加剧全球变暖的重要因素。然而,从长远来看,二氧化碳排放与GDP增长之间的关系是什么?这种关系真的总是积极的吗?本文从世界银行数据库中收集CO2排放数据和GDP数据,运用回归方法从全球视角分析CO2排放与GDP增长的关系。最后,根据过去50年记录的数据,二氧化碳与GDP呈负相关。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on the Profitability of China’s E-commerce Platforms in the Post-epidemic Era 后疫情时代中国电子商务平台盈利能力研究
Ruiqi Han, Wenxin Su, Ruqi Xiao
As one of the products of the global economic development in the new era, E-commerce is now tending to the stage of rapid development, and it plays a vital role in the economic development of China and even the whole world. Especially after the COVID-19, the development of online retailing has entered a new climax. But the problem is that the existing research and data is mainly based on the effect of the world economic environment and the influence of changes in supply and demand of the entire retail industry, but very few cases take the analysis of the typical electric business platform’s financial statements, to analyze the epidemic situation in China, which is a particular economy. Therefore, our research can help consumers better understand the factors that affect the profitability of E-commerce business in the post-epidemic era, and put forward reasonable suggestions to improve or fix the corresponding problems. We mainly adopted three methods, which are Literature analysis, Case Study, and Comparative analysis (vertical). After adopting the above three methods to analyze JD.com, Inc.'s financial statement, we find some problems in its profitability. For example, there are some problems in cost control, asset arrangement and planning, and even in the strategic choice and brand building of the enterprise. To solve these problems, we provide measures such as market positioning, intangible asset management, personalized service, supplier relationship, and business expansion to help enterprises of the same type better adapt to the impact of the post-epidemic era. This study should benefit a series of E-commerce platforms in the post-epidemic era, especially on the issues related to profitability development of online retail platforms in the specific economy of China.
电子商务作为新时代全球经济发展的产物之一,目前正趋于快速发展阶段,在中国乃至世界经济发展中发挥着至关重要的作用。特别是新冠肺炎疫情之后,网络零售的发展进入了一个新的高潮。但问题是,现有的研究和数据主要是基于世界经济环境的影响和整个零售业供需变化的影响,而很少有案例通过分析典型电商平台的财务报表,来分析中国这一特定经济体的疫情。因此,我们的研究可以帮助消费者更好地了解后疫情时代影响电商盈利能力的因素,并提出合理的建议来改善或解决相应的问题。我们主要采用了三种方法,分别是文献分析、案例研究和比较分析(纵向)。采用以上三种方法对京东公司的财务报表进行分析后,我们发现其盈利能力存在一些问题。例如,在成本控制、资产安排和规划方面,甚至在企业的战略选择和品牌建设方面都存在一些问题。针对这些问题,我们提供了市场定位、无形资产管理、个性化服务、供应商关系、业务拓展等措施,帮助同类型企业更好地适应后疫情时代的冲击。本研究对后疫情时代的一系列电子商务平台,特别是对中国特定经济环境下的网络零售平台盈利能力发展的相关问题有一定的借鉴意义。
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引用次数: 0
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Proceedings of the 2021 International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition (FMET 2021)
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