Ukraine: Facing Default Under Conditions of Global Uncertainty

Zhuk Pavlo
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract Ukraine faces a threat of full-fledged default and deep financial and political crisis. The current deep recession is the country's second major economic crisis in ten years. Ukraine was severely affected by the global financial crisis in 2008, with its economy shrinking by 15% in 2009. The economy remained weak in the aftermath, as former government caused the business climate worsening. The lack of reforms limited growth of GDP to just 0.3% in 2012 and remained static in 2013. By the end of 2013, Ukraine was already on the brink of collapse. The conflict in the eastern part of the country has further exacerbated the recession. Today the sources of economic growth in Ukraine have been exhausted, and the country is strongly increasing its debts trying to attract foreign investment. The government’s reform efforts have so far failed to significantly improve the country’s business climate. Ukraine is ranked 83rd out of 189 countries in the latest World Bank's ‘Doing Business’ 2016 index. This score is the second worst in Europe. Ukraine is still considered the most corrupt country in Europe as well (rated at number 142 out of 175 by Transparency International in 2014). The persistent state of war has disrupted industrial production, which is mainly located in the eastern part. The article elucidates recent events in Ukraine as well as gives a brief historical overview. The influence of misleading governance of economic situation is revealed. The positive scenario, in which Ukraine overcomes default, is unlikely to happen unless the firm measures are to be taken.
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乌克兰:在全球不确定的条件下面临违约
乌克兰面临全面违约的威胁和深刻的金融和政治危机。目前的严重衰退是该国十年来的第二次重大经济危机。乌克兰在2008年受到全球金融危机的严重影响,2009年其经济萎缩了15%。由于前政府导致商业环境恶化,经济在之后仍然疲软。由于缺乏改革,2012年的GDP增长率仅为0.3%,2013年则停滞不前。到2013年底,乌克兰已经处于崩溃的边缘。该国东部的冲突进一步加剧了经济衰退。今天,乌克兰经济增长的源泉已经枯竭,该国正在大力增加其债务,试图吸引外国投资。到目前为止,政府的改革努力未能显著改善该国的商业环境。在世界银行最新发布的2016年营商环境指数中,乌克兰在189个国家中排名第83位。这个分数在欧洲倒数第二。乌克兰仍然被认为是欧洲最腐败的国家(2014年透明国际在175个国家中排名第142)。持续的战争状态扰乱了主要位于东部的工业生产。这篇文章阐明了乌克兰最近发生的事件,并给出了一个简短的历史概述。揭示了经济形势误导性治理的影响。除非采取坚定的措施,否则乌克兰克服违约的积极情景不太可能发生。
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