On determination of survivor search domain at sea restricted areas

Abstract

Methods of survivor search domains determination currently recommended by International Maritime Organisation (IMO) are reviewed. Their details are highlighted and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-markov model of the process of hydro-meteorological conditions changing is constructed. To describe the survivor position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of survivor drift trend curves for different survivors are determined. The search domains in which different survivors are placed are determined. The methods of parameters estimation are proposed separately for all considered parts of the model. They are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps, which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea.