The Storm Before the Calm? Adverse Effects of Tackling Organized Crime

I. Long
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Abstract

Policies targeted at high-crime neighbourhoods may have unintended consequences in the presence of organised crime. Whilst they reduce the incentive to commit crime at the margin, those who still choose to join the criminal organisation are hardened criminals. Large organisations take advantage of this, substituting away from membership size towards increased individual criminal activity. Aggregate crime may rise. However, as more would-be recruits move into the formal labour market, falling revenue causes a reversal of this effect. Thereafter, the policy reduces both size and individual activity simultaneously.
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平静之前的风暴?打击有组织犯罪的不利影响
针对高犯罪率社区的政策可能会在有组织犯罪存在的情况下产生意想不到的后果。虽然他们在边际上减少了犯罪的动机,但那些仍然选择加入犯罪组织的人是顽固的罪犯。大型组织利用了这一点,从成员规模转向增加个人犯罪活动。总犯罪率可能上升。然而,随着越来越多的准雇员进入正规劳动力市场,收入下降导致这种效应发生逆转。此后,该政策同时减少了规模和个人活动。
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