Adaptation à court et à long terme de l'agriculture au risque de sécheresse : une approche par couplages de modèles biophysiques et économiques

Abstract

[paper in French] In this article, we analyse the impact of drought risk on agriculture. We use a biophysical crop growth model (STICS) in order to simulate crop yield under various climatic scenarios. A micro-economic model which optimises, under climate uncertainty, land allocation across crops and irrigation is developed to reflect farmer’s behaviour. This framework is used to assess the impact of drought risk on a representative French farmer located in the Midi-Pyrenees region (South-West of France). We first show that, on the short run, the private cost of a drought can be high. On the long run, farmers can however significantly reduce this cost by modifying their cropping systems. We finally demonstrate that French farmers may benefit from the implementation of early drought alert mechanisms.