Scenarios and Modified Interval Based Wind Power Uncertainty Modelling for Decision Making in Electricity Market

Abstract

The major power share from uncertain wind power producers would create a formidable challenge for grid management. Uncertain generation characteristics may impact the trading strategy of power producers. Hence, there is a need to model involved uncertainties for accuracy in the trading decision in an electricity market. The randomness of wind speed could be described by a stochastic process and characterized via probabilistic scenarios. However, probabilistic scenario-based models are computationally demanding and require a large number of scenarios. In this regard, this paper presents the modified interval forecast approach along with the stochastic scenario approach. In the modified interval approach uncertain interval is forecasted as upper and lower bounds and hourly ramps are considered using net-load scenarios. The proposed modified interval model results in computationally fast solutions and is accurate to capture available wind power output. Proposed models would be useful for wind power producers in trading decision-making.