Forecasting Medicine Purchase Budget using Multiple Linear Regression Method: Case Study - For Ende Regency Health Office

Abstract

: In planning and budgeting for medicine purchases for the Ende regency health office, the pattern used is the pattern of medicine consumption and epidemiological patterns, which are supported by the existing budget and based on the medicine needs plan. This research focuses on forecasting the medicine budget based on the real use of medicines in 24 Ende regency public health centers. The use of multiple linear regression methods has a significant impact because there are other variables that also influence the budget. The 24 public health centers are divided into 3 categories namely for public health center city category, the results of the correlation R, R square and Adjusted R Square are 0.941, 0.886 and 0.871, MAD is 2560360, MSE is 10157921086788, MAPE is 5.73%, public health center outside the city and mountainous regions category, the results of the correlation R, R square and Adjusted R Square values are 0.793, 0.630 and 0.582, MAD is 5756562, MSE is 54447250606455, MAPE is 6.84% and public health center outside the city and coastal areas categories, the results of the correlation R, R square and Adjusted R Square values are 0.873, 0.762 and 0.731, MAD is 5315655, MSE is 61576610175327, MAPE is 9.16%.