Seven-Step Algorithm to Identify Hybrid Warfare – The Black Sea Snake Island Case Study –

Abstract

"The hybrid approach, as a new way of promoting diplomatic, informational, military and economic interests, represents the most common threat used by state or non-state actors all over the world. The purpose of this article is to create a new analytical tool by studying the hybrid challenges in the Black Sea region related to the Snake Island situation. The two research questions which create the premises for building our analysis are: How can hybrid threats be identified and visualized? and How can the aggressor’s progress be evaluated related to hybrid challenges? In this respect, our analysis is based on Patrick J. Cullen and Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud Analytical Framework Model for visualizing hybrid warfare applied to the particular Snake Island situation in order to identify critical functions and vulnerabilities, synchronization of means and actions and desired effects of the hybrid warfare actor. Moreover, we have applied the Process Tracing method and the Measure of Performance (MOP) tool to identify means in order to establish which of them can create the most disastrous consequences to Romanian energy security and to evaluate the aggressor’s progress in obtaining the desired effect(s). The paper results in a seven-step algorithm to identify hybrid warfare by combining an Analytical Framework Model, the Process Tracing research methodology and the Measure of Performance military evaluation tool with the main purpose of creating a new tool useful for future analysts and researchers."