Wave Energy Extraction by the End of the Century: Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract

Using wind speeds and sea ice fields from the EC-Earth global climate model to run the WAVEWATCH III model, we investigate the changes in the wave climate of the northeast Atlantic by the end of the 21st century. Changes in wave climate parameters are related to changes in wind forcing both locally and remotely. In particular, we are interested in the behavior of large-scale atmospheric oscillations and their influence on the wave climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. Knowing that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is related to large-scale atmospheric circulation, we carried out a correlation analysis of the NAO pattern using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations. These simulations include historical periods (1980–2009) and projected changes (2070–2099) by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios with three members in each RCP wave model ensemble. In addition, we analysed the correlations between the NAO and a range of wave parameters that describe the wave climate from EC-Earth driven WAVEWATCH III model simulation over the North Atlantic basin, focusing on a high resolution two-way nested grid over the northeast Atlantic. The results show a distinct decrease by the end of the century and a strong positive correlation with the NAO for all wave parameters observed.