Private Savings Behaviour in Nepal: Longterm Determinants and Short-run Dynamics

R. Shrestha
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

With a view to explain the long-run and cyclical behaviour of private savings in Nepal during the period 1974-2005, the study employs an error-correctionframework. The study estimated 0.309 as marginal propensity to save with the corresponding value of 0.365 in the long-run. The estimation results reveal thatreal income, real government savings, real foreign savings, real interest rates, and labour market constraints play important roles in determining private savings in the short and long-run. The findings of the study suggest that there is a need to focus on development policy which increases productive base of the economy in order to increase income growth and reduce unemployment. It is also important to note that the real interest rates have a positive influence on the private savings and can be taken as an important policy variable in Nepal.
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尼泊尔的私人储蓄行为:长期决定因素和短期动态
为了解释1974-2005年期间尼泊尔私人储蓄的长期和周期性行为,该研究采用了一个错误纠正框架。研究估计边际储蓄倾向为0.309,长期对应值为0.365。估算结果表明,实际收入、实际政府储蓄、实际外国储蓄、实际利率和劳动力市场约束在决定短期和长期私人储蓄方面发挥着重要作用。这项研究的结果表明,有必要把重点放在提高经济生产基础的发展政策上,以便增加收入增长和减少失业。还必须指出的是,实际利率对私人储蓄有积极影响,在尼泊尔可以被视为一个重要的政策变量。
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