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Improving Macroeconomic Management: Experiences and Lessons 改善宏观经济管理:经验与教训
Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v16i1.54740
Tula Raj Basyal
The relationship between growth and macroeconomic stability is a wellestablished phenomenon. Long-term growth requires a higher level of investment and a stable economic environment contributes in promoting saving and investment. Good macroeconomic policies help attract foreign saving. Sound fiscal and monetary policies create a conducive climate for private investment and economic growth. So, the policymakers need to redress the problems of domestic and external financial imbalances by designing and implementing an appropriate mix of policies for achieving higher growth, lower price uncertainty, reduced external imbalances, and other macroeconomic vulnerabilities. So, the important issues facing the policymakers are designing sound exchange rate arrangement, making current account sustainable, and promoting financial and macroeconomic stability. In order to promote sound macroeconomic environment for attaining sustained economic growth, there is a need to pursue more flexible exchange rate regime and make progress toward adopting inflation targeting in addition to improving the financial sector soundness, strength and stability.
经济增长与宏观经济稳定之间的关系是一个公认的现象。长期增长需要更高的投资水平,稳定的经济环境有助于促进储蓄和投资。良好的宏观经济政策有助于吸引外国储蓄。稳健的财政和货币政策为私人投资和经济增长创造了有利的环境。因此,政策制定者需要通过设计和实施适当的政策组合来解决国内外金融失衡问题,以实现更高的增长、更低的价格不确定性、减少外部失衡和其他宏观经济脆弱性。因此,设计合理的汇率安排、实现经常账户的可持续性、促进金融稳定和宏观经济稳定是当前政策制定者面临的重要问题。为了促进良好的宏观经济环境,以实现持续的经济增长,除了改善金融部门的健全、实力和稳定性外,还需要实行更灵活的汇率制度,并在采用通货膨胀目标制方面取得进展。
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引用次数: 0
Remittance and its Effect on Poverty and Inequality: A Case of Nepal 汇款及其对贫困和不平等的影响:以尼泊尔为例
Pub Date : 2022-11-28 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v34i2.49430
Nimesh Salike, Jingyi Wang, P. Regis
This paper examines the impact of remittance on poverty and income inequality in the context of Nepal using cross-sectional national survey- Nepal Living Standard Survey, third edition (NLSS3) of 2010-11. We employ a Heckman two-step estimation model with instrumental variables and constructed counterfactual income to investigate the real impact of remittances. We find that remittance has helped in the reduction of poverty ratio by 5.3% but deepened the poverty gap by 7.37% and severity by 9.25%. In terms of inequality, remittance has helped to reduce inequality within the remittance receiving group, however, it also contributed to rising income inequality when compared to non- remittance receiving group.
本文采用横断面全国调查——2010-11年尼泊尔生活水平调查第三版(NLSS3),考察了汇款对尼泊尔贫困和收入不平等的影响。我们采用了带有工具变量的Heckman两步估计模型,并构建了反事实收入来研究汇款的实际影响。我们发现,汇款帮助贫困率降低了5.3%,但使贫困差距加深了7.37%,贫困严重程度加深了9.25%。就不平等而言,汇款有助于减少汇款接收群体内部的不平等,然而,与非汇款接收群体相比,汇款也加剧了收入不平等。
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引用次数: 0
An Empirical Study on the Determinants of Government Revenue in Nepal 尼泊尔政府收入决定因素的实证研究
Pub Date : 2022-11-28 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v34i2.49437
Yam Lal Bhoosal, Rohan Byanjankar
This paper aims to examine the determinants of government revenue in Nepal. The macroeconomic variables, namely, GDP per capita, imports, consumer price index, exchange rate, and foreign aid from 1975 to 2021 have been included to assess their effect on government revenue. We have performed descriptive and econometric analyses. Government revenue increased by about 15 percent on average from 1976 to 2021 and the revenue-to-GDP ratio stood at around 22 percent in 2021. The empirical results reveal that GDP per capita and imports are the major determinants of government revenue in the short run. Likewise, GDP per capita, imports, and exchange rate are the major determinants of government revenue in the long-run. The error correction term suggests that the short-run disequilibrium in the system takes about 3 years to converge to equilibrium.
本文旨在研究尼泊尔政府收入的决定因素。宏观经济变量,即1975年至2021年的人均GDP、进口、消费者价格指数、汇率和对外援助,被纳入评估其对政府收入的影响。我们进行了描述性和计量经济学分析。1976年至2021年,财政收入平均增长约15%,2021年财政收入与国内生产总值之比约为22%。实证结果表明,人均GDP和进口是短期内政府收入的主要决定因素。同样,人均GDP、进口和汇率是长期政府收入的主要决定因素。误差修正项表明,系统的短期不均衡需要3年左右的时间才能收敛到均衡。
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引用次数: 2
Corporate Pay-out Policy and Test of Life Cycle Theory; Evidence from Nepalese Commercial Banks 公司股利政策与生命周期理论检验来自尼泊尔商业银行的证据
Pub Date : 2022-11-28 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v34i2.49439
Ajaya Dhungana, Tej Prasad Devkota
Dividend policy of firm in theoretical finance is one of the most controversial issue, various theories of dividend policy try to explain the dividend behaviour of the firm. The dividend distributed by a firm to its shareholder is very different when it is viewed from the perspective of the company’s life cycle. If no regulation forces, then firms at initial stage have higher investment opportunities, so they retain all their earning and pay no dividend. The firms at maturity stage have less investment opportunities, slow pace of growth rate and lower cost of raising external capital, hence, mature firms retain less and pays higher dividend. Life cycle hypothesis suggests that firm increases their dividend with their maturity. This study investigates the dividend behaviour of Nepalese commercial banks, by using the ten years panel data for the period from 2010 to 2019. Using conventional proxies of life cycle, the result of the study consistently shows that Nepalese listed commercial bank follow dividend life cycle theory. The result also shows that larger firms pay higher dividend and dividend history has positive relation with next period dividend payment. The result is robust and such robustness check has been conducted by altering some of the proxies of the variables. The result of the study suggest that the regulators should not impose same dividend policy to the entire banking industry.
企业的股利政策是理论金融学中最具争议的问题之一,各种股利政策理论都试图解释企业的股利行为。从公司生命周期的角度来看,公司分配给股东的股息是非常不同的。如果没有监管力量,那么公司在初始阶段有更高的投资机会,因此他们保留所有的收益而不支付股息。成熟期企业投资机会少,成长速度慢,外部融资成本低,因此,成熟期企业留存较少,股利较高。生命周期假说认为,随着公司的成熟,公司的股息会增加。本研究使用2010 - 2019年的十年面板数据,对尼泊尔商业银行的股息行为进行了调查。采用传统的生命周期代理,研究结果一致表明尼泊尔上市商业银行遵循股利生命周期理论。研究结果还表明,企业规模越大,股利支付越高,股利历史与下一次股利支付呈正相关。结果是稳健性的,这种稳健性检验是通过改变一些变量的代理来进行的。研究结果表明,监管机构不应对整个银行业实施相同的股息政策。
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引用次数: 0
The Frequency of Mobile Banking Use During COVID-19 COVID-19期间手机银行的使用频率
Pub Date : 2022-09-05 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v34i1.47992
L. Pokhrel
The purpose of this paper is to examine the frequency of mobile banking use during COVID-19. Data were collected from 226 respondents. Data have been analyzed by applying the two-stage structural modeling technique through Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). This study has found a significant positive impact of attitude towards mobile banking, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control on behavior intention mobile banking adoption. However, the risk perception of COVID-19 has no effect on the intention of mobile banking adoption. Based on the findings of this research, some theoretical and practical implications have been provided.
本文的目的是研究COVID-19期间手机银行的使用频率。数据收集自226名受访者。采用偏最小二乘-结构方程建模(PLS-SEM)两阶段结构建模技术对数据进行分析。本研究发现,手机银行态度、主观规范和感知行为控制对手机银行采用行为意愿有显著的正向影响。然而,对COVID-19的风险认知对移动银行的采用意图没有影响。在此基础上,提出了一些理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 3
Remittances Economic Growth and Investment Nexus: Evidence From Nepal 汇款、经济增长和投资关系:来自尼泊尔的证据
Pub Date : 2022-09-05 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v34i1.47991
Shashi Kant Chaudhary
This paper assesses the contribution of remittances on GDP and private gross fixed capital formation of Nepal by employing the ARDL bound test approach. The model incorporates the level of financial development, and the institutional quality of Nepal as regressors in addition to the macroeconomic regressors recognised by the literature. Perron’s (1997) innovation outlier model of breakpoint unit root test has been used to confirm the suitability of the variables in the ARDL bounds test approach. The findings show a positive effect of remittances on GDP while a negative effect on private gross fixed capital formation. The paper concludes that remittances do not act as a source of capital flows in the context of Nepal, rather they behave as compensatory transfers to the recipient households. To align remittances in productive activities such as self-employment, financial investment, etc., a remittance-focused policy is advised to reach out the recipients and provide them rigorous advisory and training supports.
本文采用ARDL约束检验方法评估了汇款对尼泊尔GDP和私人固定资本形成总额的贡献。该模型结合了金融发展水平和尼泊尔的制度质量作为回归因子,以及文献中认可的宏观经济回归因子。使用Perron(1997)的断点单位根检验的创新离群值模型来确认ARDL界检验方法中变量的适宜性。研究结果表明,汇款对GDP有积极影响,而对私人固定资本形成总额有消极影响。本文的结论是,在尼泊尔,汇款并不是资本流动的来源,而是对接收家庭的补偿性转移。为了使汇款与自营职业、金融投资等生产活动相结合,建议制定一项以汇款为重点的政策,向收款人提供严格的咨询和培训支持。
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引用次数: 1
Role of Remittances on Rural Poverty in Nepal-Evidence from Cross-Section Data 汇款对尼泊尔农村贫困的作用——来自横截面数据的证据
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v33i1-2.47989
Rohan Byanjanakar, Mira Shakha
This paper attempts to determine the impact of remittance on rural poverty in Nepal using the microdata set of household risk and vulnerability survey 2016 – 2018. The cross-sectional analysis has been carried out using a dataset of 2018 with 5,645 households across 50 districts of Nepal. The logit regression model has been used to determine the relationship between poverty and remittances. About 38 percent of rural households received remittances in 2018. About 65 percent of households headed by females received remittance compared to 30 percent of households headed by male counterparts. About 41 percent, 31 percent, and 32 percent of households living in the Hilly region, Terai, and Himalayan region respectively received remittance in 2018. About 1 in every 5 households in rural Nepal is poor. The probability of households falling into poverty reduces by 4.8 percent with a one percent rise in household assets. Remittance receiving households are 2.3 percent less likely to get caught in poverty as compared to remittance non-receiving households. The probability of households plunging into poverty decreases by about 1.1 percent with every 10 percent increase in remittance inflows to households.
本文试图利用2016 - 2018年家庭风险与脆弱性调查的微观数据集来确定汇款对尼泊尔农村贫困的影响。横断面分析是使用尼泊尔50个地区的5,645个家庭的2018年数据集进行的。logit回归模型已被用于确定贫困与汇款之间的关系。2018年,约38%的农村家庭收到了汇款。大约65%的女性户主家庭收到了汇款,而男性户主家庭收到汇款的比例为30%。2018年,生活在丘陵地区、台莱地区和喜马拉雅地区的家庭分别约有41%、31%和32%收到了汇款。在尼泊尔农村,大约五分之一的家庭是贫困的。家庭资产每增加1%,家庭陷入贫困的可能性就会降低4.8%。与不接受汇款的家庭相比,接受汇款的家庭陷入贫困的可能性要低2.3%。家庭汇款流入每增加10%,家庭陷入贫困的可能性就会降低约1.1%。
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引用次数: 1
Bank Stability and Its Determinants in The Nepalese Banking Industry 尼泊尔银行业的银行稳定性及其决定因素
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v33i1-2.47988
N. Singh
This paper investigates bank stability and its bank-specific, industry-specific, macroeconomic and institutional determinants for the Nepalese banking industry. The study employs the system GMM to a panel of bank-level data covering the period from 2004-2018.  The results show that the stability of the Nepalese banking industry improved during the early years of the study period, i.e., 2004-2007; however, it exhibited a decaying trend for the rest of the study period. The analysis reveals that the major factors responsible for this deterioration are capital adequacy, asset quality, and earnings of the banks. Most of the dimensions have shown improvements during the initial years of the study period; however, this trend reversed post-2007.The study groups the banks into three categories: stable, moderately stable, and less stable banks as per their respective stability score. The estimation results indicate that a positive bank stability persistence exists in the Nepalese banking industry. Results suggest that credit growth has a negative impact on the stability of the banks. The results of the study support the concentration-stability hypothesis. Income diversification appears to have a positive impact on the stability of the banks. Findings disclose that inflation is playing a crucial role in impacting the stability of the banks. The study reveals that the GFC had no significant impact on the stability of the Nepalese banking industry.
本文调查了银行稳定性及其银行特定,行业特定,宏观经济和尼泊尔银行业的制度决定因素。该研究采用GMM系统对2004年至2018年期间的银行级数据进行了分析。研究结果表明,尼泊尔银行业的稳定性在研究初期,即2004-2007年有所改善;然而,在研究期间的其余时间里,它呈现出衰减趋势。分析表明,造成这种恶化的主要因素是资本充足率、资产质量和银行收益。在研究期间的最初几年,大多数方面都有所改善;然而,这一趋势在2007年后发生了逆转。该研究将银行根据各自的稳定性评分分为三类:稳定、中等稳定和不太稳定的银行。估计结果表明,尼泊尔银行业存在正的银行稳定性持久性。结果表明,信贷增长对银行的稳定性有负面影响。研究结果支持浓度-稳定性假说。收入多元化似乎对银行的稳定性有积极影响。调查结果显示,通货膨胀在影响银行稳定性方面发挥着至关重要的作用。研究表明,全球金融危机对尼泊尔银行业的稳定性没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 2
Role of Workers’ Remittances in Export Performance of Nepal: Gravity Modelling Approach 工人汇款在尼泊尔出口绩效中的作用:重力模型方法
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v33i1-2.47987
R. Paudel, T. Bhusal
Role of workers’ remittance seems to be an imperative part of Nepalese economy for about two decades. The remittances inflow has supported to maintain the foreign reserves at the national level and consumption in household level. This paper investigates the role of remittances in export performance of Nepal employing the gravity modelling approach using annual data for the period of 26 years, from year 1993 to 2018. First, we document the scenario of remittances and export nexus, then conduct an econometric estimation for the exports flows from Nepal to its trading partners. The major finding indicates that the remittances have a statistically significant negative impact on export performance, which is largely impacted by the size of the trading partner’s economy as indicated by the estimation’s results. The study suggests for an urgent attention from policy makers to make the remittance in favor of exports by developing the export strategies. In this regard, a special focus on exporting to the rich economies may be a good way to boost the export performance of Nepal.
近二十年来,工人汇款似乎是尼泊尔经济的重要组成部分。汇款流入有助于维持国家一级的外汇储备和家庭一级的消费。本文采用重力模型方法,利用1993年至2018年26年的年度数据,研究了汇款在尼泊尔出口绩效中的作用。首先,我们记录了汇款和出口关系的情景,然后对尼泊尔对其贸易伙伴的出口流量进行了计量经济学估计。主要发现表明,汇款对出口实绩具有统计上显著的负面影响,而出口实绩在很大程度上受到估计结果所表明的贸易伙伴经济规模的影响。本研究建议政策制定者应尽快注意,透过制定出口策略,使汇款有利于出口。在这方面,特别注重向富裕经济体出口可能是促进尼泊尔出口业绩的好方法。
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引用次数: 1
Determinants of Financial Performance of Nepalese Commercial Banks: Evidence from Panel Data Approach 尼泊尔商业银行财务绩效的决定因素:来自面板数据方法的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.3126/NRBER.V32I2.35300
P. M. Shrestha
The impact of bank specific factors on the financial performance of Nepalese commercial banks is analyzed in this paper. The financial performance is measured by using return on assets (ROA). Similarly, managerial efficiency (ME), liquidity (LIQ), credit risk (CR), assets quality (AQ) and operational efficiency (OE) is used as proxy of bank specific factors. This study used panel data of 17 commercial banks for the period of 2010/11 to 2017/18. Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test showed that Pooled Regression model is not appropriate and Hausman test concluded that Fixed Effect model is appropriate rather than Random Effect model. Using the Fixed Effect model; this study concludes that bank specific factors have significant impact on financial performance of Nepalese commercial banks. Finally, this study reveals that ME, AQ and OE have significant positive impact, and CR has negative impact on the financial performance of Nepalese commercial banks.  
本文分析了银行特定因素对尼泊尔商业银行财务绩效的影响。财务绩效是用资产收益率(ROA)来衡量的。同样,用管理效率(ME)、流动性(LIQ)、信用风险(CR)、资产质量(AQ)和运营效率(OE)作为银行具体因素的代理。本研究使用了17家商业银行2010/11至2017/18年间的面板数据。Breusch和Pagan拉格朗日乘数检验表明Pooled Regression模型不合适,Hausman检验表明Fixed Effect模型比Random Effect模型更合适。采用固定效应模型;本研究得出银行特定因素对尼泊尔商业银行财务绩效有显著影响的结论。最后,本研究发现ME、AQ和OE对尼泊尔商业银行财务绩效有显著的正向影响,CR对财务绩效有负向影响。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
NRB Economic Review
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