A Method of Safety Risk Analysis for the lower waterways of the Yangtze River

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of lack of quantitative research in the risk assessment of navigation safety in the lower waterways of the Yangtze River, a factor analysis method based on 5M model (Management, Machine, Man, Media, Mission factor) is proposed, the main influencing factors of 258 major and 223 minor casualty accidents in the lower waterways of the Yangtze River were analyzed by using this method, the results show that poor visibility, large traffic flow, weak safety awareness of crew and outdated ship equipment are the main factors leading to traffic accidents. The effect of factor analysis based on 5M was evaluated by using the coverage rate and influence rate of main factors of accident, and compared with the statistical analysis; the results showed that the coverage rate of factor analysis was slightly lower than that of statistical analysis, but the impact rate increased by 56.4%. The case study shows that the factor analysis method based on 5M is feasible for the navigation safety risk quantitative analysis of the lower waterways of the Yangtze River.