The geopolitics of transportation in the melting Arctic

Abstract

Introduction Contrary to popular belief, in the Arctic, climate change is a helper, but not a driver of traffic expansion for sea transportation. Shipping companies design their strategies around market location and profitability rather than out of consideration of melting of Arctic ice. Moreover, climate change is a serious hindrance for land transportation projects with the melting of permafrost. For several years to come, natural resources exploitation, rather than cargo transit traffic, will likely be the major market for shipping expansion in the Arctic. Shorter routes due to melting sea ice do not appear attractive to most shipping companies. Instead, shipping companies are interested in increased destinational traffic, especially for oil and gas and mining. A factor that could alter this picture is the fact that transportation projects also at times reflect a desire to assert sovereignty over maritime or land expanses. Expansion of Arctic transportation projects (services and infrastructure) stem from the fact the Arctic has become integrated in the global economy. It is globalization that drives natural resources exploitation. It is the globalization of Chinese and Russian economic ambitions that supports the construction of expensive overland projects. It is globalization, and not necessarily conditions in the Arctic, that has shipping companies questioning the profitability of Arctic shipping.