Research on supply and demand of senior crew in coastal area based on combination forecast

Abstract

In the face of the shortage of crew labor in the shipping market and the rising shipping companies, it is necessary to analyze the supply and demand situation in my country to ensure that the Chinese crew can develop in the direction of the dynamic balance of supply and demand. The senior crew put forward an effective labor resource allocation plan to improve shipping talents training program. Based on the number of in-service crew members of ships of 3,000 gross tonnages and above in my country's coastal navigation areas and the number of valid certificates held by senior crew members in each position, the actual number of in-service crew members will be used for demand. With the number of crew members holding valid certificates as the supply, a linear weighted combination prediction model based on quadratic exponential smoothing method, regression prediction method, and GM (1,1) grey prediction method is established to predict the number of senior seafarers for 2020-2026. Experimental research shows that from 2020 to 2026, the supply and demand of senior seafarers in my country's coastal areas are on the rise, but the supply is in short supply. In response to the problem of unbalanced development of supply and demand, it is necessary to strengthen school-enterprise cooperation, improve the attractiveness of seafarers, and pay attention to the career development planning of seafarers.