Moldova: Military Confrontation with Russian Forces

Abstract

Chapter five focuses on the asymmetric conflict between Moldova and the Russian forces which supported separatists in Transnistria. The purpose was to uncover why Mircea Snegur’s Moldovan regime seemed unyielding to Russian demands, which resulted in armed conflict. The underlying argument is primarily based on the necessary condition, namely that Chisinau had a domestic crisis that needed immediate attention. Moldova was trying to claim its sovereignty, where an important step entailed establishing a common identity and territorial control. While Snegur’s presidency was stable and popular, it was dependent on nationalists’ support. Such dependency required policies that marginalised minorities and fuelled conflict with Russia, which wanted to retain Moldova within its sphere of influence. However, having perceived numerous crises unfolding in the late Soviet Union and emerging Russia, Snegur made a calculatable gamble that Russia would not be able to commit to a conflict. In other words, Snegur perceived a window of opportunity. The gamble failed, however. Nonetheless, with a counter-factual assessment, these findings are further strengthened.