Determination of the Course of COVID-19 Pandemic Using Modified Logistic Modeling

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 appeared in China at the end of 2019. It then spread all over the world very quickly. The new type of corona virus COVID-19, which causes respiratory tract infection, is destructive with its high rate of transmission and mortality rate. Materials and Methods: In this study, determining the course of the COVID-19 pandemic for next 4 months in Afghanistan with the help of a specially modified mathematical modeling is intended to reveal. Results: results of our study show that the COVID-19 pandemic can affect a large population in Afghanistan in a short time. However, it is possible to reduce the number of cases and deaths very effectively with easy measures. Keywords: COVID-19, precautions, pandemic, logistic mathematical model, Afghanistan.